2010年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2010年第三季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2010Quarterly Report -Q3/2010 – Trends & Prospects EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2010: Quarterly Report (Q3/2010) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2010 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2010: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2010) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) © Photo by courtesy of the German National Tourist Board / Deutsche Zentrale fürToruismus e.V.: Torsten Krüger. Duisburg/Ruhr area: Duisburg-Nord Industrial Foreword Executive Summary Data confirm a global recovery in travel isunderway. The recovery extends toEurope which has experienced growth invisitor arrivals through the first half of the While the travel recovery in Europe hasbeen generally broad, gains have Some European destinations havebenefitted from favourable exchange rateconditions. Russia and Japan haveprovided heady growth thus far with the Industry data echo the results fromdestinations. Passenger growth onEuropean airlines has been consistentlypositive since the airspace closures inApril. Recovery in hotel prices, which However, the outlook for global economicrecovery has become much less certain. The US economy, in particular, hasslowed while the Eurozone showedsurprisingly strong in the first half of 2010 While the corporate sector is flush withcash and represents an upside risk to theforecast, a timid response in hiring and Uncertainty in the financial sector led byproblems with European banks andstalling of asset prices provides additional Is the economic recovery stalling? In a reversal of roles,recovery in theEurozone isoutperforming while Over the pastthree months, significant revisions have been made to oureconomicforecasts,as second-quarter data and leading indicators havesuggested an unusual divergence in prospects for GDP growth particularly The Eurozone’s surprisingly strong rebound in 2010H1 was not inspired byconfidence benefits from planned fiscal tightening. Indeed, significant risks arestill posed by sovereign debt issues in the periphery of the Eurozone. Rather, aweakereuro and a higher dependence on trade with booming emerging GDP growth % quarter In contrast, the US has slowed as imports have surged, hiring has remainedmutedand the inventory boost to growth has faded.However,with finaldomestic demand strengthening in the second quarter US growth is set to Nonetheless, the outlook remains highly uncertain, with the big question-markbeing the behaviour of the corporate sector. Despite the woes in the financialsector, it is non-financial companies – rather than banks or households – whichhavebeen the largest driver of the global cycle.It was not consumer The outlook is highlyuncertain, with thebehaviour of the Non financial corporate balance The counterpart of the swing to government deficits globally has been bigsurplusesnot for households but for non-financial corporates,and thesesurpluses need to be spent if the recovery is to continue since governments and In this uncertain environment, risks are both high and skewed towards thedownside. On the upside, the release of accumulated corporate liquidity into anew investment boom is possible but, on the downside, a sub-par recovery or Risks going forwardare weighted toward 2010 Tourism Performance Summary Of 19 countries reporting data for arrivals in TourMIS, all but 2 have postedinternational tourist arrivals growth in the year to date. UNWTO showsvisitor growth of 2% for the whole of Europe with every region exhibitingaccelerating growth through June. This is a marked recovery from a slowstart to the year and the set back to air transportation caused by the Lodging sector performance continues to improve as occupancy ratesmoved higher in most destinations over the past three months and all butthree countries have experienced higher occupancy for the year to date. Intra-European travel continues to perform well with France showing stronggrowth and an apparent recovery in outbound travel from the UK. Russiahas also been a stellar source market thus far in the year. The relatively Source : IMF Source : UNWTO Economy Overview An Uncertain and Uneven Recovery There is greater uncertainty than usual in the global recovery and USgrowth in particular has slowedRecovery in Europe remains uneven with continued signs of divergencebetween core and peripheral countries Global Overview Global growth prospects have become more uncertain as weaker economicdata, notably in the US, has interacted with financial stresses related to issues Emerging market