2010年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2010年第四季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2010: Quarterly Report (Q4/2010) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2011 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2010: Trends & Prospects (Q4/2010) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Published and printed by the European Travel Commission19A Avenue Marnix (PO Box 25), 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite: www.etc-corporate.orgEmail: info@etc-corporate.org ISBN No: 978-92-990058-5-9 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) © Photo by Österreich Werbung / Viennaslide. Vienna's Christmas market on Foreword Executive Summary The travel recovery in Europe, andglobally, continued into the waningmonths of 2010. Data show a slightacceleration of growth of visitor arrivals Both airline and hotel industry dataconfirm the recovery reported in arrivalsdata. Passenger growth on Europeanairlines continued at a brisk pace since air Occupancy rates in European hotelscontinued to rise through November and Source : TourMIS, ETC, *date varies (Aug-Dec) by destination Exchange rates have been favourable formany European destinations. Arrivalsfrom Russia and Japan have grown Travel within Europe has benefited from asteady economic recovery in parts ofEurope with intra-regional travelcontinuing to comprise the bulk of arrivals. Concerns over sovereign debt in Europeprovide the greatest source of uncertainty.After the bailouts of Greece and Irelandby the EU/IMF, attention has turned to The risk of any of the ‘peripheral’Eurozone economies defaulting is notinsignificant. The consequences of defaultwould induce major losses for all On the positive side, the corporate sectorcontinues to hold large cash positions Could the Eurozone debt crisis derail the The near-term outlookhas improved fordeveloped countries,including the The global growth picture has improved slightly in recent months, with the paceof expansion picking up again in China, some encouraging indicators in the USand some surprisingly resilience in the Eurozone – despite the serious financial Developments in the corporate sphere and money growth trends have alsobeen broadly positive in recent months, and the latter will be reinforced by theUS Fed’s decision in November to expand quantitative easing once again. % GDP growth (at PPP) Given these developments, our central forecast is for 2011 being a year wherethe global recovery becomes more firmly embedded. There remain significantuncertainties around this central view, however. Growth is likely to slow in thefirst half of 2011 as the rebound in world trade moderates, and with continued But the outlookremains uncertain andsome slowdown in On the other hand, the strong financial position of corporates points to possibleupsiderisks to growth based on a faster recovery of investment and Global growth also remains at risk from an intensification of the Eurozonesovereign debt crisis. Despite a series of bail-outs this year, the crisis remainsessentially unresolved with bond yields in the ‘peripheral’ Eurozone countries at Against this background, the risk of ‘austerity fatigue’ resulting in one or more oftheEurozone countries entering default is not insignificant,and such a development could lead to one or more countries exiting the Eurozone. Policyoptions that might prevent this currently appear to be running up against serious Default and exit fromEurozone cannot beruled out for certain The financial consequences of defaults would be very serious, with majorlosses for European banks and a rapid transmission of financial distress from Such an outcome would present a huge challenge for policymakers. The scopefor a fiscal policy response to a renewed downturn looks very limited, especiallyin the light of the recent violent reaction of US bond markets to tax policydecisionsin the US.On the monetary side,there remains scope for an Given the potential for such negative outcomes, global policymakers can beexpected to focus strongly on trying to avoid the Eurozone debt crisis sparking awave of financial contagion. The key question will be whether any solution to Ifrestructuring is unavoidable,then policymakers need to consider whatcontainment mechanisms can be put in place to prevent or at least ameliorate 2010 Tourism Performance Summary International arrivals remained on an upward trajectory for most Europeandestinations as 2010 came to a close. Of 25 countries reporting data forarrivals in TourMIS, all but 3 posted international tourist arrivals growth inthe year to date. Of the countries reporting data through November, all Lodging sector p