2014年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2014年第四季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2014: Quarterly Report (Q4/2014) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2015 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2014: Trends & Prospects (Q4/2014) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.org Email:info@visiteurope.comISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Cover: Trakai Castle, Trakai, Lithuaniacopyright photoff,http://www.shutterstock.com/gallery-401758p1.html Foreword European tourism grew strongly and steadily in 2014 2014 setsEuropean tourism on a record growthpath. UNWTO1, the UN agency for tourism, estimates thatthe European tourism sector grew by 4% last year, reachinga total of 588 million visits, a 22 million increase compared to2013. For the fifth consecutive year, international tourism inthe region has grown above the 2.4% average rate forecastfor the period 2010-20252. Data reported by ETC members through November-December 2014 exceed the positive trend reported by theUN agency. Two out of three ETC destinations report growthabovethe regional performance(top chart).As to beexpected, most of them are emerging destinations who are Among them, established destinations in Southernand Mediterranean Europe stand out. In the area, growth isled by large destinations such as Greece (+22%), driven bythe recovery of business travel and price convenience, and Spain (+9%), whose vibrant sector earned the praise of itsPrime Minister for its excellent contribution to the Spanisheconomy3. Malta (+7%), Slovenia (6%), Croatia (+5%) and A profitable business all across the value chain Positivetrends are mirrored in performanceindicators from the hotel sector. Confidence remains highwithin this sector, where data point to improved occupancyandprofits.Average Daily Rates(ADR)rose at most Source: IATA Air traffic data for Europe also grew at a faster pacethanthe previous year(middle chart).Despite repeateddisruptions caused by strikes in the last quarter of 2014,Passenger Load Capacity was reported at marginally higher Long-haul markets lead growth, on top of a strong regional market Factors that contributed to a successful year include: the recovery of major source markets, marketingeffortsin promoting travel outside the main season and themed promotional activities.Manydestinations benefitted from increased travel from Europe’s top markets, such as France, Germany,Italy and the UK. Data point to a recovery during short breaks, in addition to the main holidays, assuggested by increases in overnights, shorter lead times and more last-minute bookings. While growth Data paint a bleaker picture for the Russian market, especially as the crisis in Eastern Ukraine showsno sign of abating. Outbound travel from this market is expected to mirror the deep economic recessionexpected in 2015, largely caused by the devaluation of the Rouble and falling price of oil, andassociated with capital flight in emerging markets. A recovery of the market is expected in the medium In the US, accelerated economic growth, the appreciation of the dollar against the euro and decreasingair fares have contributed to strong performance in this market. Consumer spending is expected tobecome stronger, backed up by an improved labour market and sustained GDP growth, as reflected inan average growth of +5% per year through 2019. A similar optimistic outlook is reported for China, amarket sized at 26 million arrivals to long-haul destinations in 2014, and whose growth in Europe is Sailing through rough seas? A number of factors bode well for another positive year in Europe’s tourism sector. Due to lower energyprices, a weaker euro, continuing reforms, and a likely new round of stimuli from the European CentralBank, it is reasonable to expect continued growth from the regional market. Nevertheless, adverserisks may partly offset favourable risks as the year progresses. Following the January events in Paris,the threat of more terror attacks in Europe may produce ripple effects to other European destinations. Dark clouds may be gathering over the waters on which European tourism is sailing and slow down itsgrowth. For 2015, the ETC expects the European tourism sector to continue at a cruising speed around Valeria Croce, ETC Executive UnitETC Market Intelligence Group 2014 Tourism Performance Summary 2014growth suggest