2012年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2012年第四季度）

This page is a placeholder and is tobe replaced in the PDF documentfor the cover provided by ETC. EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2012: Quarterly Report (Q4/2012) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2013 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q4/2012) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel CommissionRue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite: www.etc-corporate.orgEmail: info@etc-corporate.org ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Photo © iStockphoto / Joe Rainbow – January 2012 near Tromso in Northern Foreword European travel performance exceeds
Inbound travel to Europe is expected to have grownby a solid 4% in 2012, following a year of stronggrowth (+7% in 2011), and despite the persistenceof a negative economic climate in the Eurozone.
Bothemergingandestablisheddestinationscontributeto this performance.Iceland(+20%),Lithuania(+12%)and Romania(+10%)top theranking with exceptional double-digit growth, thoughmoving from a low base. Some larger destinations, Source : TourMIS*date varies (Jun-Dec) by destination
At the other end of the spectrum, Poland (-2%) andUK(+0%)experienced negative or flat growthdespiteworldwide exposure provided by largeevents.TheuniquecombinationofQueenElizabeth’s Diamond Jubilee and the Olympic andParalympic Games in the UK, and the FIFA EURO2012In Poland(and Ukraine),produced mixed Source : TourMIS*date varies (Jun-Dec) by destination Tourism Decision MetricsVisitor Growth Forecasts
Trends in foreign visitor nights highlight a slow butsteadydecline in the length of stay.Notableexceptions are Bulgaria (+8%), Serbia (+8%), Malta(+7%) Croatia (+7%), Spain (+7%), Latvia (+6%) Growth in foreign visits from both intra-regional and long-haul
Both recovery from - and persistence of - the effects generated by the “GreatRecession” and the Eurozone debt crisis helped to generate positive effects
Underthe persistence of tight fiscal policy and economic recession,anincreasing number of Europeans opt for travel within the regional borders.This is consistent with observed behaviour in previous economic slowdowns,when lower-cost travel options were sought, including shorter trips taken
Russia remains the fastest growing source market within Europe, with growthin both arrivals and overnights in all reporting destinations. Positive signalsare also evident in large established markets such as Germany, France and
The rejuvenation of the economies in key long-haul markets also contributedto the growth of international arrivals to Europe. Most European destinationsreport robust growth from the US market, coupled with a strong rebound of Outlook 2013
As the most significant risks for the global economy eased through 2012, the2013 outlook for the global economy is more optimistic. Yet, the persistenceof troubles in some Eurozone economies will prevent a swift recovery andpresent significant challenges. With more fiscal austerity ahead and tightening
Inbound tourism from key long-haul markets is expected to continue growingin 2013 but growth from European markets remains the crucial element for
The slowdown of air traffic, which is expected to extend over 2013, will notnecessarily be reflected in a slowdown of inbound flows to Europe, as this islargely due to reduced traffic from Europe to North America. Recent trends of
Although it will be hard to match the strong recent performance, ETC expectsEuropean destinations to grow on average by 1% to 3% next year but with ETC Market Intelligence Group 2012 Tourism Performance Summary European travel performance exceeded expectations throughout much of 2012with growth reported in many established and emerging destinations. The trendhas been of a slowdown throughout the year as the economic backdrop hasdeteriorated. However, intra-European travel demand in particular has been Slowdown in late 2012 is especially evident in the more timely hotel performancedata and corroborates the emerging trend of shorter length of stay in the arrivalsand overnights data. Hotel data is also influenced by increasing supply, while Source : TourMIS*date varies (Jun-Dec) by destination Source : TourMIS*date varies (Jun-Dec) by destination Global Economy: 2013 outlook is brighter than 2012 as risksrecede
The outlook for world