2010年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2010年第一季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2010Quarterly Report -Q1/2010 EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2010: Quarterly Report (Q1/2010) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2010 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2010: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2010) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Published and printed by the European Travel Commission19A Avenue Marnix (PO Box 25), 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@etc-corporate.org ISBN No: 978-92-990058-2-8 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Photo: Basilica of Esztergom, Hungary / Courtesy of the Hungarian Foreword Leslie VellaChairman Executive Summary Overnight visits to European destinationsfell 6% in 2009, erasing the growth of the Intra-European travel proved more stablein 2009 relative to long haul markets. Thisaccounted for the relatively strong The most recent data indicate a recovery intravel to European destinations isunderway. Both airlines and hotels are reportinghigher demand in the first months of 2010.Service industry surveys also indicate The emerging economies are leading theway in the economic recovery, with mostindustrialised companies expected to lag The economic recovery in Europe is fragile– growing budget concerns could derail analready weak recovery. The travel recovery is expected to bemodest, consistent with economic recovery.High unemployment and tepid consumer Source: Oxford Economics Near term expectations of travel relatedservice industries indicate growing A rebound from record lows is overdue fromJapan while the US market also holdspromise in the coming year. UK travellers Visits to European destinations areexpected to grow 2.4% in 2010 and thenaccelerate to 3.8% in 2011, when 2008 Looking Back at 2009 Erasing two years of gains The losses incurred last year during the “great recession” erased the gains ofthe previous two years, taking European overnight arrivals below 2006 levels.Around the world, international visitation fell an estimated 4.7%. However, thelosses were more severe in Europe which shed approximately 6% in visitor 2009 erased two yearsof visitor growth to Source: PATA, Haver, Eurostat, Oxford Economics However, the results across Emerging Europe ranged wildly. The top fourEuropeanperformers in terms of overnight arrivals growth—Turkey,Montenegro, Serbia, and Bulgaria—are all within Central and Eastern Europeand posted near-flat performance last year.Yet the bottom four performers— Results varied wildlywith a general trend Within Western Europe, the Netherlands, Austria, Germany, and Switzerlandare on track to be the best performers in 2009—all registering losses between2.4% and 4.1%. This relatively good performance is connected to the trend In select markets—including Serbia, the Netherlands, Spain, and Hungary—performance in terms of nights was better than arrivals. However, the majorityof destinations confirm the trend toward shorter stays with declines in nights A Snapshot of 2009 Tourism Performance Economy Overview Slow economic recovery expected A weak recovery is expected in the Eurozone as lingering unemploymentand lacklustre confidence levels filter through to demandRecovery in Europe will be uneven as signs of divergence grow between Global Overview The rebound in growth in the main emerging market countries has significantlyoutpaced that seen in the main industrialised countries over recent months.Most strikingly, trade volumes in the emerging economies were rising at over This uneven pattern has been further illustrated by the apparent faltering ofgrowth in the major European economies around the turn of the year. Privatesector GDP barely grew in the final quarter of 2009 in the Eurozone and the UK, However,there are some cautious grounds for optimism that the majoreconomies may not be left hopelessly trailing behind in 2010. In the US, GDProse strongly in the final quarter of 2009 despite a negative contribution from theearly signals on consumer spending and industrial output for Q1 arepositive. In Europe, orders data and surveys have tended to be stronger thanoutputnumbers,suggesting faster growth ahead–some of the recent Rapid emerging market growth will also provide a boost. The outlook hereremainsrobust,although a few uncertainties have crept in about the Overall, we continue to expect prospects in the advanced economies to improvethrough 2010 and especially in 2011. GDP in the G7 is forecast to rise 2.3% this Recent Industry Performance Recent indicators point to growth Passenger demand driving increased airline load f