2011年欧洲旅游业-趋势与前景（2011年第一季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2011Quarterly Report -Q1/2011 – Trends & Prospects EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2011: Quarterly Report (Q1/2011) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2011 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2011: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2011) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) © Photo (c) iStockphoto/Marcus Lindström - Row of colourful houses in Nyhavn, Foreword Arrivals, hotelperformance, and aircapacity trends paintan encouraging Of those countries which have reported 2011 performance, the majority areexperiencing a positive start to the year. Not only are arrivals generally up,but length of stay appears on the rise as well. These trends are confirmed by In addition, the capacity of European airlines continues to expand, carryingon the trend from late 2010. This should translate into competitive fares and These encouraging trends appear set to continue, albeit at a slowing rate ascomparisons are made to stronger performance in 2010 and high energy We trust you will find the analysis in this report helpful as you track your owndestination’s performance and seek to anticipate future trends. Best wishes, Leslie VellaChairman Ms Petra HedorferPresident Executive Summary Destination and industry data indicate apositive start to 2011. Foreign visitorarrivals were reported higher through the Both airline and hotel industry dataconfirm the continuation of travel growthto Europe, however at a more measured International passenger traffic to Europeoutpaced global growth over the first twomonths of the year. European airlines also Hotel occupancy has improved further,but appears to have peaked. AverageDaily Rates continue to push up across We expect the overall growth trend toslow in 2011 as comparisons are made tostronger performance in 2010 and high Wage spiral inflation is unlikely in thedeveloped economies as unemploymentand spare capacity persist. Capacityutilisation is higher in emerging markets The aftermath of the Tohoku earthquakewill affect the Japanese economy andconsequently outbound travelconsiderably in the short run. Japan is European airlines capacity 4 week MA, Available Seat Kilometres (ASK), % change year ago Capacity of European airlines continues toexpand, carrying on the trend from late2010. Capacity surged between late 2010and early 2011, averaging a 7.8%increase in Available Seat Kilometres Outbound Travel Risk from Japan Disaster The Tohoku Pacific earthquake and tsunami which struck Japan on March11 was the most serious to hit Japan since the Kobe earthquake of 1995, The Tohoku earthquake and tsunami struck a broader, more rural area. Thetwo regions most affected (Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures) have GDParound US$200 billion or perhaps 4% of the Japanese total – somewhat lessthan the Hyogo region containing Kobe. But as well as damaging local Japanese travellers are notably reactive to crises. An initial surge inJapanese outbound may be observed as some Tokyo and other regional A significant drop-off in Japanese outbound is expected for 2011 in line withthe 10% decline in departures observed in past crises. This will affect longerhaul destinations more acutely as observed with historic drops in Japanese Europe has lost a significant market share of Japanese travel to Asianmarkets over the last decade (behind only Oceania and the Americas inmarket share loss). This has reduced the dependence of European Japan Dependency Ratio Share of international arrivals by destination region However, this dependence varies by destination across Europe. The chartsbelow show 2009 arrivals of Japanese visitors in European destinations and France and Germany welcomed the largest number of Japanese travellers toEurope, over half a million each in 2009. Italy, Switzerland, UK, and Spain all Overnight Arrivals from Japan '000s, 2009, by destination Switzerland, Germany, Finland, and Hungary are the destinations most reliantonJapanese travel—all above the world average dependency ratio(theJapaneseshare of total international arrivals).The Czech Republic,Netherlands, Croatia, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium, Iceland Lithuania, Romania, Japan Dependency Ratio Share of international arrivals by destination 2010 Tourism Performance Summary International arrivals remained on an upward trajectory for most Europeandestinations as 2010 came to a close. Of 19 countries reporting full yeardata for arrivals in TourMIS, all but four posted international tourist arrivals Lodging sector performance attests to the