2011年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2011年第四季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2011Quarterly Report -Q4/2011 – Trends & Prospects EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2011:TRENDS & PROSPECTS Quarterly Report (Q4/2011) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2012 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2011: Trends & Prospects (Q4/2011) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Published and printed by the European Travel Commission19A Avenue Marnix (PO Box 25), 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@etc-corporate.org ISBN No: 978-92-990059-4-1 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Photo ©: Bruno Medley - Fotolia.com Europe's tallest Christmas tree, Lisbon, Portugal. Foreword Executive Summary Travel to European destinations in 2011has exceeded the prior peak set in 2008. Impressively, 22 of 23 reporting countriesshow international visitor growth in 2011,ranging from 3% in the UK to more than20% in Latvia and Lithuania. And 24 of26 countries show gains in hotel Total international visits are estimated tohave surged 6% last year, while hoteloccupancy rates rose 3.2%, indicating Source: Tourism Decision Metrics / UNWTO While the travel recovery has been quiterobust, signs of eroding gains began to Data on visitation and nights from (http://www.tourmis.info/index_e.html) aswell as hotel and airline industry dataprovide a consistent picture of the Three forces converged to bring aboutthis late-year trend: reversion to the meanfrom the ash cloud rebound in the first halfof the year; the second half of 2010 wasrelatively stronger than the first half so The financial crisis in the Eurozone hascontinued to worsen in recent months.Problems in sovereign debt markets havespread from Greece, Ireland and Portugal If the Eurozone authorities fail to arrestthe alarming slide in financial andbusiness confidence, the consequenceswould be severe. In the event of aEurozone break-up, GDP could initially fall 2011 Tourism Performance Summary The expected late-year slowdown of travel to Europe came to fruition. Availabledata for visits and nights, and hotel and airline industry data all point to the samestory: the recovery of travel and tourism across Europe is fading. Arrivals and Global Outlook: Will the Eurozone crisis sinkthe global economy? The financial crisis in the Eurozone has continued to worsen in recent months,despite a series of attempts by EU leaders to stem it. Problems in sovereigndebt markets have spread from Greece, Ireland and Portugal to Spain and Italy Spain and Italy’s bond yields have risen sharply,to around 7% in the case of Italy – a level whichis unsustainable in the medium-term – despitesignificantbond purchases by theECB.Moreover, Italy and Spain need to refinance avery large volume of maturing government debtin the coming months and rolling this over will be The financial crisis has also spread beyond thesovereign bond markets to broader Eurozonefinancial markets. The banking sector has comeunder particularly acute pressure, in part due to Banks in the four smaller ‘peripheral’ countries –Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain – have nowborrowed €380 billion from the ECB in loans. InGreece, these loans are now funding almost a use of loans from the ECB has skyrocketed in recent months with banks in twocountries now owing around €150 billion each. Against this background, there is a serious risk of significant bank failures. In2011, Franco-Belgian bank Dexia failed as its short-term creditors pulled fundingand this pattern could easily be repeated. Eurozone banks need to rollover some Disturbingly, there are also signs that depositors are losing faith in banks insome countries. In Greece, this process has been underway for some time –around 25% of private sector deposits have fled the banking system since the have also been significant outflows in other countries including Ireland and,perhaps most worryingly, Spain. If unchecked, this process poses grave risks to The financial crisis has also spilled over to the real economy. In response tofunding pressures, banks are reacting by pulling back from lendingand/oraccelerating deleveraging. Heightening risk aversion has also seen a notable The financial crisis in the Eurozone is now so severe that it threatens theintegrity of the Eurozone itself. There are several ways in which the currentsituation could lead to one or more current Eurozone members exiting the euro: lead a country to decide that growth can only berestored outside the Eurosystem),.donor fatigue(public finances are set to come under renewedpressureand this may lead to growing EU leader