2011年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2011年第二季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2011Quarterly Report -Q2/2011 – Trends & Prospects EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2011:TRENDS & PROSPECTS Quarterly Report (Q2/2011) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2011 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2011: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2011) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Published and printed by the European Travel Commission19A Avenue Marnix (PO Box 25), 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@etc-corporate.org ISBN No: 978-92-990058-9-7 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Photo ©: iStockphoto / Arie J. Jager. St. Nicholas Cathedral seen from Prague'sCharles Bridge, Czech Republic. Foreword Leslie VellaChairman Executive Summary Travel to Europe continued to exhibitstrong growth through May as indicatedby industry and arrivals data. Nearly alldestinations report growth in arrivals for However, the heady growth numbers aredue in part to a rebound effect resultingfrom comparison to data during the air The most recent lodging and arrivals dataare showing signs of moderating growthwhile data for European airlines shows amodest expansion in recent weeks.Available (and continually added) capacity Hotel occupancy slowed in Southern andEastern Europe in May while the rest ofEurope held relatively steady. AverageDaily Rates continue to push up across We expect the overall growth trend toslow in the remainder of 2011 ascomparisons are made to stronger Only two years into the recovery andincoming data indicate that the globaleconomy has weakened anew, raising However, the softening of growth in Q2likely reflected a number of temporaryfactors that are already fading. Therecovery in the developed nations hasnow reached a stage where it is self- 2011 Tourism Performance Summary Foreign arrivals continue to perform solidly across most of Europe with 19 of21 countries reporting year-to-date growth. And seven of these countrieshave posted growth of 10% or more. Visitor nights have not been quite asstrong, with five destinations reporting declines in visitor nights and 9 of 16destinations reporting slower gains in nights than arrivals. Add to this, year- Source : TourMIS, ETC, *date varies (Mar-May) by destination Source : TourMIS, ETC, *date varies (Mar-May) by destination Special Report: Are the advanced economiesfacing a lost decade? Only two years into the recovery and incoming data indicate that the globaleconomy has weakened anew, raising doubts about whether the expansion inthe advanced economies is sustainable. So does this disappointing economicdata indicate that we are already heading into another downturn, or is this Recent weeks have seen a slew of weaker-than-expected data releases fromthe major economies. The global composite PMI indicator for May showedmanufacturing output growth slipped to a near two-year low, with national datapointing to slower rates of expansion in the US, the Eurozone and the UK. Inthe Eurozone, the manufacturing PMI fell sharply in both May and June to its In the United States, the latest employment report was very disappointing,showinglabour market weakness through June with an increase in theunemployment rate to 9.2%. With higher prices eating into wages, consumer Onereason for the apparent loss of momentum among the industrialisednations has been the moderation of growth in the emerging markets, whichhavebeen the engine of the global recovery.This slowdown had beenforeseen, as many emerging market economies have been tightening monetary Nonetheless, growth in the developed world has still disappointed expectations.Against this background, investors are worried that the global expansion maybe faltering, recalling memories of the double-dip recession fears that were In fact, the consensus view is that the current slowdown will again prove to beshort-lived,as the weakening trend in growth indicators can be linked totemporary adverse factors. First, supply chain disruptions from the Japaneseearthquake and tsunami have had a direct impact on manufacturing and the consumers and businesses, helping to underpin a rebound of activity in the Whilethis reasoning offers some reassurance that the slowdown in theadvanced economies will prove transitory in nature, the fact remains that theeconomicrecovery in developed economies is proving unusually weakcomparedto other post-War cycles.An economy typically recovers to its It seems that previous economic cycles may not provide a useful guide to thedynamics of the current cycle. But this may not be too surprising, as manyfeaturesof the rece