2012年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2012年第二季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM 2012Quarterly Report -Q2/2012 – Trends & Prospects EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2012: Quarterly Report (Q2/2012) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) European Tourism in 2012: Trends & Prospects (Q2/2012) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite: www.etc-corporate.org Email: info@etc-corporate.org ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Foreword Leslie VellaChairman Executive Summary
In the first half of 2012 European travelhas exhibited some resilience in the faceof the weak and uncertain globaleconomic environment. Most reporting
At the moment, the global economy isrestrained by government austerity and asoftening in export demand with leading
This uncertain economic backdrop,however, is not yet causing significant Source : TourMIS*date varies (Mar-Jun) by destination
Air travel has also shown someencouraging signs, with European airlinepassenger growth around 6% throughmid-June. European airline load factors
However, airlines passenger load factorshave increased only marginally as theyear is progressing. Demand remainshealthy while capacity continues to be
Hotels data show signs of mixedperformance throughout Europe. WhileCentral and Eastern European
Overall, a moderation in hotel occupancyrates in most European sub-regions is
Tourism arrivals data for the first half of2012 reveal an uneven picture of growthin the major European source markets.Meanwhile, Russia continues to be a star 2012 Tourism Performance Summary Data for 2012 indicate that parts of the region have expanded. Arrivals andnightsdata show Eastern and Central Europe continue to perform well.Meanwhile, large Western European destinations, including Germany, the UK,Austria, and Spain have also posted growth in the first five months of 2012. Source : TourMIS*date varies (Mar-Jun) by destination Source : TourMIS*date varies (Mar-Jun) by destination Global Economy: Growth concerns prompt central banks to act
The beginning of July has seen a series ofimportant policy moves by global central banks,in the face of growing concerns about stalling
In the Eurozone, the European Central Bank(ECB) cut key interest rates – aiming toencourage banks to lend or buy assets. But theECB’s moves still look too timid in the face ofacute financial strains and chronic weakness in
These moves were not coordinated, but ageneral shift toward looser policy isunderstandable in the face of a weak recent runof economic data. Survey evidence such as the
And in the US, three successive months of weakjobs growth has raised questions about thedurability of the recovery. With so manycountries banking on export-led growth to offset
Against this background, attention is likely toturn to the US’s own policy settings. Althoughthe Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) has authorisedthe extension of its ‘operation twist’ bond
Even with prompt and large-scale policy action,global growth prospects have been damaged.Eurozone GDP is set to contract 0.5% this year,and Eurozone woes have contributed to a loss
Key emergers are also looking weaker thanks toslower export growth and reduced capitalinflows. Emerging growth this year will still berespectable, but will not be enough to prevent Recent Industry Performance Slowdown but still growth in 2012 Despite signs of a more pronounced economic slowdown, international air
Reflecting some of the uncertainties in Europe and North America, aircapacity in these regions has risen only marginally as the year has
Although hotel demand in Europe has slowed sharply, it remains positivein the first five months of 2012 with Central and Eastern Europe displaying Air Transport Global international air passenger traffic surged aheadinearly 2012,but has recently slowed somewhat.February’s strong growth of 9.3% continued into Marchwhich recorded a 9.6% advance, before moderating inApril and May to 7.4% and 5.6%, respectively. Thisexpansion has been led by growth in the Middle East,which continues to record the strongest increase, and In Europe, however, the trend differs. In 2010, revenue passenger kilometers(RPK) grew by 5% before accelerating to 10% in 2011. Although, expansionhas been variable, European air travel growth on average slowed to around 6% Overthe same perio