2020年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2020年第二季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q2/2020) EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS & PROSPECTSQuarterly report (Q2/2020) A report produced forthe European Travel Commission Copyright © 2020 European Travel Commission EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q2/2020) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately andclearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. While we encourage dis-tribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website (www.etc- The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database (http://www.tourmis.info), STR, IATA, andUNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics (www.tourismeconomics.com) Published by the European Travel CommissionRue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Email:info@visiteurope.com ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by: Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group. Cover:Bled, Slovenia-Aerial panoramic drone view of Lake Bled (Blejsko Jezero) from high above on a brightsummer day with the Pilgrimage Church of the Assumption of Maria, Bled Castle and Julian Alps Image ID:1473496307Copyright:ZGPhotography FOREWORD The tourism sector is facing a crisis like no other, with heightened uncertainty surrounding its recov-ery. As data into the second quarter of the year become available, the impact of pandemic-related According to the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, global growth is predicted at–4.9%in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 forecast. To minimise the knock-on effects of theoutbreak, economies in Europe are starting to reopen while stimulating tourism to salvage the sum-mer holiday season and limit the financial fallout from the pandemic. What is clear is that destinations The silver lining of the pandemic has been widely discussed, with tourism experts finding commonground regarding commitment to sustainability. It has become imperative to build a sector that ismore resilient, competitive, and prepared for future crises, supported by tourism strategies that aremore respectful with the environment and local economies and communities. Adapting swiftly to the There is still some degree of uncertainty as to what tomorrow’s tourism will look like with mostques-tions revolving aroundWhat type of tourism/tourists will destinations seek? Will niche tourism be thefuture? Will mass tourism be a shortcut for fast recovery? How fast will tourists become more confi-dent about travelling internationally? How will consumer needs and preferences change post-pan- The latest issue of the European Tourism Trends & Prospects (Quarterly Report) provides an analysisof the travel and tourism sector and closely monitorsthe impact of the pandemic on destinationsacross Europe and on the wider macro-economic environment. This edition includes a special feature Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit) TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD..........................................................................................................................................4TABLE OF CONTENTS.........................................................................................................................5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................61. TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2020.................................................................................92. GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY.................................................................................133. RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE..........................................................................................14AIR TRANSPORT................................................................................................................................14ACCOMMODATION...........................................................................................................................184. SPECIAL FEATURE........................................................................................................................20 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COVID-19 HAS WREAKED HAVOC ON EUROPEAN TRAVEL DEMAND The impact of the global health crisis is becoming clearwithEuropean tourism growth expected toremain below 2019 levels until 2023. During the first four months of the year, Europe saw a dramatic 44% decline in international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, a decrease in linewith global performance1.Tourism jobs losses in Europe in 2020 could be monumental, ranging be-tween 14.2mn to 29.5mn2. Uncertainty still dominates and the duration of pandemic restrictions will Ahead of the summer season, tourism bus