2011年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2011年第三季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2011:TRENDS & PROSPECTS Quarterly Report (Q3/2011) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2011 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2011: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2011) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Published and printed by the European Travel Commission19A Avenue Marnix (PO Box 25), 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.orgEmail:info@etc-corporate.org ISBN No: 978-92-990059-2-7 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Photo ©: iStockphoto/Rubén Hidalgo. View of Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao, Spain. Foreword Executive Summary Signs of economic weakness have led usto revise down our global economicgrowth forecast to 2.8% in 2011 and 3.1% And risks to this forecast are skewed tothe downside, coming from three differentfronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozonedebt crisis including financial contagion, ii)the possibility that the US falls back into On the whole, the travel recovery iscontinuing. However, the rate of European airlines have experience robustdemand growth through September. Withonly one exception, weekly growth rateshave been above 6% and have averaged Through August, room demand has grownnearly 4% and been especially strong inEastern and Southern Europe, withoccupancy rates up 7.3% and 5.2%, Source : TourMIS, ETC, *date varies (Mar-Aug) by destination By the end of 2011, we expectinternational visits to Europe to have However, the economic landscapepresents a challenging environment fortravel. We expect European inboundtravel to slow markedly, to 2.3% in 2012from 5.6% in 2011. The core Eurozone 2011 Tourism Performance Summary On the whole, the travel recovery is continuing. However, the rate ofexpansion is slowing with few exceptions. Visits, nights, and hotel occupancydata tell a consistent story of strong performance that is tapering off as theyear progresses. Occupancy rates have increased 3.7% through August Source : TourMIS, ETC, *date varies (Mar-Aug) by destination Source : TourMIS, ETC, *date varies (Mar-Aug) by destination Global Outlook: Dangerous Times The global economic outlook has worsened sinceour last report. The latest data point to a loss ofmomentumacross a wide range of countriesfollowingthe post-crisis recovery in 2010.Weestimatethat world GDP growth(at marketexchange rates) slowed from 4% year-on-year in2010Q4 to 3.2% in 2011Q1 and further to 2.7% in Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics And data available for Q3 show few signs of arebound. The manufacturing ISM and PMIs in theUS, Europe and China have fallen to or below the Inaddition,August figures show that USunemployment continues to linger at 9.1% whilenet job creation has ground to zero. Elsewhere, thelatest labour market data tells a similar story; in The evident slowdown in global economic activity,combinedwith a series of events(protractednegotiations on the US debt ceiling, the risk ratingdowngrade of Italian and US debt, rumours aboutFrench banks’ ability to access funding and theItaliangovernment’s U–turn on a draft austeritypackage),have sent financial markets into atailspin since July. By mid-September, share pricesin the US were down almost 15% from their earlyJuly peak, while European stocks were down 25- One factor accounting for the slowdown in economic activity is the change inpolicy stance across most countries and regions. In particular, following theperiod of fiscal expansion that took place during the 2008/09 recession, fiscalpolicy was broadly neutral in 2010 and has turned restrictive this year. Fiscal Baseline forecast revised down We have revised down our global economic growth forecast to 2.8% in 2011and3.1%in 2012(at market exchange rates).Advanced economies areforecast to growth by 1.5% this year and 2.1% in 2012, while emerging markets Risks to this forecast are skewed to the downside, coming from three differentfronts: i) an escalation of the Eurozone debt crisis including financial contagion,ii) the possibility that the US falls back into recession, and iii) a hard landing inthe emerging economies and China in particular. Each of these three scenarios i) Eurozone debt crisis unabated Wehave long argued that the most likely scenario is that the Eurozone‘muddlesthrough’the current debt crisis,avoiding messy defaults andremaining intact as a currency area. In particular, we have taken the view thateven if debt defaults do take place, the weaker countries would engage in a However, developments in recent months are raising doubts that policymakerswill act quickly and effectively to resolve the cr