2014年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2014年第三季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2014: Quarterly Report (Q3/2014) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2014 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2014: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2014) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database / http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.org Email:info@visiteurope.comISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Cover: San Marino © San Marino: bilciu In memoriam Mr. Tom Ylkänen Foreword European tourism proves robust and resilient International tourist arrivals bydestination European tourism has continued to grow robustlythroughout2014 and has proved resilient toheadwinds. Data from the first three quarters ofthisyear paint a very positive picture for Contrary to recent trends, large destinations havecatalysed most tourism growth this year. Spain hasbeen growing by a strong 9%, on top of nearly 61m visits reported in 2013. Turkey, Europe’s 4thlargest destination, mirrors this performance with a 7% increase. Arrivals to Greece are up by 16%, partlythanks to the recovery of business travel. In theregion,Serbia(+13%),Portugal(+10%),Malta(+8%), Slovenia (+7%), Croatia (+7%) and Cyprus Source: ETC, TourMIS. Slovakia (-14%) is the only destination reportingnegativegrowth,due to unfavourable weather Inbound travel from Russia by destination 2013, share of each destination’s foreign guestsmix. Arrivals’ growth is mirrored in nights only at severallargerdestinations(Spain+12%and Germany+5%),while most destinations report slowergrowth, in line with past trends. In the contingentsituation, with consumers’ spending power on the Internationalair passenger traffic confirms thistrend.Year-to-date growth has exceeded 5%,despite strikes of Europe’s two largerst carriers.Growth is particularly strong between Europe and Source: ETC, TourMIS. Established source markets continue to thrive Established source markets in Europe remain key to the success of many destinations in theregion. Germany, the European tourism powerhouse, is expeccted to reach all-time recordsin outbound travel in 2014. The UK market eventually rebound and delivered its full potential,with growth in nights outpacing that in arrivals. Positive signals also come from France andtheNetherlands,although consumer sentiment remains weak and travel habits cost- Unsurprisingly, the Russian market is performing . After a good start in Q1, travel fromRussia fell during Q2 by an estimated 6% as an impact of geopolitical tensions over Crimea.Year-to-date data point to a recovery of demand in Q3, which shall be interpreted as theeffect of longer travel lead times for main holidays, rather than as an early sign of recovery. Ifno changes occur, Russian outbound travel to Europe is expected to still grow in 2014, but Overseas markets offset Russia’s weak performance. In the US, declining unemploymentand some increases in wages have increased consumer confidence. Coupled with decliningair fares, Europe’s largest overseas market has performed particularly well in 2014. Growth European tourism is in better shape to face headwinds A balanced guest mix and targeted marketing activities have made European destinationsless vulnerable to market downswings and crises. Despite the abrubt decline in growth fromRussia, Latin American economies in low gear, Japan’s anaemic economy, floods andnatural disasters, and misperceptions about the Ebola threat, European tourism is expected “Targeting a mix of markets with a high growth potential, such as the BRIC markets, and ahigh volume potential is an optimal mix to strengthen flows of visitors from overseas”, saidEduardoSantander,Executive Director of the European Travel Commission.“Spain’soutstanding growth is the result of a strategy, common to many other destinations in Europe, Valeria Croce, ETC Executive UnitETC Market Intelligence Group 2014 Tourism Performance Summary With data now available for most, if notall summer months in the majority of reporting countries,a very positive picture emerges; year-to-date (YTD) arrivals growth is observedacross all butone country. Data for overnights visits tells a similar story with YTD growth being reported in allbut four countrieswith falling arrivals and overnights in Slovakia.This strong growth follows inthe wake of a recover