2014年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2014年第一季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2014: Quarterly Report (Q1/2014) A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Groupof theEuropean Travel Commission (ETC) Copyright © 2014 European Travel Commission European Tourism in 2014: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2014) All rights reserved.The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the sourceis given accurately and clearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted forown or internal use only.While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible websites,this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website,www.etc-corporate.org, referring visitors to the Market Intelligence Section. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and Published and printed by the European Travel Commission Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, BelgiumWebsite:www.etc-corporate.org This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) Cover: Old Town, Tallinn Estonia. Photo © Shutterstock / Oleksiy Mark Foreword Strong tourism growth continues into 2014 Early results for the first months of 2014 provideoptimism for another strong year for European tourism.Although not representative of full year results, bullishgrowth in international tourist arrivals during the first The picture is reinforced by industry performance indicators. Air passenger traffic steadily points upwards,with RPK1(+6%) outpacing the relatively weak growth inthe same period of last year. The pick-up in air traveldemand is mirrored by growth in capacity, with available Encouraging signs from the intra-regional market In 2014, growth opportunities come from the weightyintra-European market. As the crisis' legacy fades andconfidenceimproves,Europeanoutboundtravelstrengthensfurther,while becoming more balanced acrosssource markets.According to a EuropeanCommission’s survey2, 8 in 10 EU citizens plan to go on Economic indicators suggest a strong performance ofGermany and the UK as outbound markets, with privateconsumptionboosted by sustained economic growthand,in Germany,by stable consumer prices.Earlyindicators also point to persistent growth of travel from While Italian consumer sentiment is positive this maynot turn into actual consumption, due to a persistentlyweak domestic economy.In the Netherlands, despite amild economic recovery, shrinking private consumption Long-haul markets to lead growth Forward momentum for European tourism comes from North America. Arrivals from this mature regiongrew by more than 10% in 2013, compared to a 14% increase in travel from long-haul markets overall.In 2014, US is expected togenerate the lion’s share of long-haul inbound, as consumer optimism, led by From Asia, the best prospects come, again, from China, with virtually all destinations reporting stunninggrowth rates in line with past years’ performance. In Japan, the positive effect of the recently approvedeconomic stimuli is expected to be more than offset by the consumption tax hike. Combined with The picture from other long-haul markets is mixed. Economic growth in developing economies isexpected to pick up only modestly. Brazil economy is expected to remain in low gear, with outboundtravel further dragged down by the FIFA World Cup event. On the other end, improvement in the UAE Championing growth for Destination Europe European tourism is experiencing an encouraging momentum. International tourist arrivals point tosustained growth for the fifth year in a row, which reflects Europe’s far-from-exhausted tourism potential.The mix of highly attractive tourism offers, short distances, high tolerance and stable political climate Potential demand for destinations in Europe is high, especially in distant markets. The intra-Europeanmarket is largely a mature one, and shows less promising growth figures than several non-Europeanregions. Long-haul markets can play a strategic role to sustain relative growth and diversify risk, but thisrequires coordinated actions to promote and market Europe overseas. “In long-haul markets, Europe asa whole lacks a clear image as tourism destination” said Peter de Wilde, President of ETC. “The lack of Embracing a joint vision for tourism growth is a strategic decision, whose impact goes beyond thetourismsector and impacts on Europe’s overall economic development.This encouraging Valeria Croce, ETC Executive UnitETC Market Intelligence Group 2014 Tourism Performance Summary International tourismarrivals and nightsin Europeareset to grow for the fifth consecutive yearin 2014, against abackdrop ofgenerallyimprovingeconomic growthinkey source markets. Tourism performance dataavailable for 2014 to datepoint to continued growth in travel to theregion.Data are only available for a ma