2020年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2020年第三季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS & PROSPECTSQuarterly report (Q3/2020) A report produced forthe European Travel Commission Copyright © 2020 European Travel Commission EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q3/2020) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately andclearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. While we encourage dis-tribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website (www.etc- The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database (http://www.tourmis.info), STR, IATA,UNWTO,and Transparent.Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics Published by the European Travel CommissionRue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email:info@visiteurope.com ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) onbehalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group. Cover:Sunset at the Pazaislis monastery, surrounded by trees colored by autumn colors. Aerial view photo-graphed in Kaunas, LithuaniaImage ID:1202347486 FOREWORD Europe has been greatly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and has seen its tourism economy shakenin ways not seen in previous crises. Countries’ efforts to flatten the curve of infection rates duringearly spring were having a clear impact as the summer season approached. As the spread of the virusseem to be under control, countries across Europe began to reopen to activate the tourism economy More than ever before, what has become essential to limit the spread of the virus is to put in placethorough testing and tracing systems, social distancing and sanitary measures, and strengthen infor-mation sharing among destinations. As the winter season approaches, it is crucial that European na-tions join forces and agree on common solutions, not only to curb thespread of the virus but also tosupport tourism’s sustainable recovery, restore traveller’s confidence, and most importantly protect Europe’spath to recovery will be slow and will require a reassessment of tourism KPIs, the implemen-tation of new tourism policies and a stronger commitment among society, business and institutionsat a local, regional and international level. While working together to rebuild the sector it is crucial to The European Tourism Trends & Prospects report provides an analysis of the travel and tourism sectorand the wider macro-economic environment. Throughout the year, this quarterly report has beenclosely monitoring the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and analysing its impact on travel and Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit) TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD......................................................................................................................................4TABLE OF CONTENTS.....................................................................................................................5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................................61. TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2020...............................................................................92. GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY...............................................................................133. RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE.......................................................................................14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FEARS OVER A SECONDWAVE OF COVID-19 INFECTIONS INTO THE AUTUMN MONTHS MATERIALISEIN EUROPE The easing of pandemic restrictions is being reversed as European destinations see a surge in Covid-19 cases. Governments have been prompted to re-impose curfews and travel restrictions while barsand restaurants sit empty in most affected areas. Effectivetest-trace-isolate systems are widely rec- Foreign visits to select destinations International tourist arrivals to Europe were down 68%1the first eight months ofthe year relative to 2019. Heightened uncertainty and risks tilted to the downside (e.g. evolution of the pandemic,furtherlockdowns, consumer confidence, economic recession, etc.) continue to dampen the outlook withEuropean arrivals set to decline 61%2in 2020. Domestic travel is likely to bounce back faster, achiev- ing 2019 levels by 2022, whereas overall travel volumes are now projected to return to pre-pandemiclevels by 2024. The knock-on effects of the pandemic have been unprecedented in scale and durationwith virtuallyall destinations recording declines in tourist arrivals over 50%. Mediterranean destinationsCyprus (-85%) and Montenegro (-84%) saw the steepest falls in arrivals attributable also to a higher depend-ency on foreign travellers. Romania’s international arrivals plunged 80%, while relatively smaller falls P