2020年欧洲旅游业——趋势与前景（2020年第一季度）

EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q1/2020) EUROPEAN TOURISM:TRENDS & PROSPECTS A report produced forthe European Travel Commission Copyright © 2020 European Travel Commission EUROPEAN TOURISM: TRENDS & PROSPECTS (Q1/2020) All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source is given accurately andclearly.Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for own or internal use only. While we encourage dis-tribution via publicly accessible websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website (www.etc- The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression ofany opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive Unit of the European Travel Commission. Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database (http://www.tourmis.info), STR, IATA, andUNWTO. Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics(www.tourismeconomics.com) Published by the European Travel CommissionRue du Marché aux Herbes, 61,1000 Brussels, Belgium Website:www.etc-corporate.org Email:info@visiteurope.com ISSN No: 2034-9297 This report was compiled and edited by:Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company) on behalf of the ETCMarket Intelligence Group. Cover:Aerial view of wooden cottage in green pine forest by the blue lake in rural summer FinlandImage ID:1106522063Copyright:Ekaterina Kondratova FOREWORD Earlier this year most downside risks in the tourism sector revolved around trade andgeopoliticaldisputes, an economic slowdown, climate change and the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreakon Chinese outbound travel. However, in March, concerns about the pandemic ballooned as the virusmade its way to other world regions at an incredibly fast pace. COVID-19 has certainly shown its dis- Although much about the pandemic is unprecedented, the current crisis has also left many of usthinking: What will tourism look like post-coronavirus? The aftermath of the crisis entails major chal-lenges and the path to recovery will come with many hurdles along the way. However, the crisis alsocreates many opportunities for the travel and tourism sector allowing for a new period of transfor-mation. Destinations will be able to reshape their tourism strategies and lay the foundations for anecosystem that is more sustainable, that benefits local communities and that provides tomorrow’s The latest issue of the European Tourism Trends & Prospects (quarterly reports) will take the readerthrough the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector and the wider macro-economicenvironment. The report highlights the extent to which destinations have been and will be impactedand provides some early indications as to what the future will look like in the next three-year period. Jennifer Iduh (ETC Executive Unit) TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREWORD......................................................................................................................................4TABLE OF CONTENTS.....................................................................................................................5EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................................61. TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2019.............................................................................102. TOURISM PERFORMANCE SUMMARY 2020.............................................................................123. GLOBAL TOURISM FORECAST SUMMARY...............................................................................154. RECENT INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE.......................................................................................16AIR TRANSPORT.............................................................................................................................16ACCOMMODATION........................................................................................................................195. SPECIAL FEATURE: CORONAVIRUS.........................................................................................21 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EUROPEAN TOURISM AMIDST AN UNPRECEDENTED CRISIS Containment efforts across Europe due to thecoronavirus outbreak have left countries struggling tosupport their economies and have taken a severe toll on the tourism sector. Pandemic concerns andimpact will intensify as travel restrictions continue intothe peak summer travel season. Numerous indicators suggest a global recession; recent forecasts estimate a decline in European tourism in line The COVID-19 crisis will cost millions of jobs and will have a greater impact onsmall andmedium-sizedenterprises (SMEs) in Europe. Amidst a high level of uncertainty, estimating the consequencesof the pandemic will depend on its evolution, and (social distancing protocols) the length of domesticand international travel bans. Although the recovery is projected to kick off early in 2