全球基金经理调查

Greedland 20 January 2026 BofA January Global Fund Manager Survey Investment StrategyGlobal Bottom Line:most bullish FMS since Jul'21; global growth expectations surge, cashlevels at new record-low 3.2%, protection against equity correction lowest since Jan'18;BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at hyper-bull 9.4 says increase risk hedges & safe havens. On Macro: growth & profit optimism surge; net 38% expect stronger economy, highestsince Jul’21; expectations for“boom”highest since Sep'21, for“recession”(9%) lowestsince Jan'22; no landing (49%) now investor base case (Chart 1 - vs 44% soft, 5% hard). On Rates: notable inflection lower in rate cut optimism, but liquidity conditions seen asbest since peak QE Sep'21, higher-than-normal risk-taking at 4-year highs, and net 48%(most in 8 years) donothave protection against a sharp fall in equity prices. OnPolitics & Risks: investors see US midterms Trump wave (16%) as likely as“bluewave”(14%; note base case 60% is DEM House/GOP Senate); for first time since Oct’24geopolitical conflict #1 tail risk(AI bubble #2) & most crowded trade = long gold. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com On AA: most OW stocks (net 48%) since Dec’24, most OW commodities (26%) sinceJun'22, most UW bonds (35%) since Sep’22; banks = #1 sector OW; biggest staples UWsince Feb’14; first time since Jan'22 investors expect HY bonds to outperform IG. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087 FMSContrarian Trades: long cash/bonds-short commods/stocks, long IG-short HYbonds, long staples-short banks, long energy-short pharma, long UK stocks-short EM. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Notes to ReadersSource for all tables and charts: BofA Fund Manager Survey,DataStream Survey period Jan 9th-15th, 2026 227 panellists with $646bn AUMparticipated in the January survey.196 participants with $575bn AUMresponded to the Global FMSquestions and 112 participants with$280bn AUM responded to theRegional FMS questions. How to join the FMS panelInvestors/clients are encouraged to Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorbany losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst sign up to participate in the Survey.This can be done by contactingMichael Hartnettor your BofA salesrepresentative. Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions. Participants in the survey will continueto receive the full set of monthlyresults but only for the relevant month BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. OW: overweight; UW: underweight AA: asset allocation Charts of the Month The January 2026 BofA Global Fund ManagerSurvey says global investor sentiment is themost bullish since Jul’21…our broadestmeasure of FMS sentiment, based on cashlevels, equity allocation, and global growth BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH BofA FMS cash level dropped to a new recordlowof 3.2% (from 3.3% last month); note incontrast the pessimistic FMS cash level seenin Apr’25 (4.8%) & Oct’22 (6.3%). Inputs from the Jan’26 FMS push the BofABull & Bear Indicator to a hyper-bull 9.4 level,up from 9.3 last week (note the“old”BofA Bull In the Jan FMS, investors were asked about themost likely outcome for the 2026 US midtermelections (currently Republicans hold majority A Democratic House & Republican Senate isthe most likely outcome to the Nov 5thelection expect a“blue wave”(Democratic House &Democratic Senate), lower than the 16% thatexpect Republicans to maintain majority inboth the House & the Senate. On the macro…FMS expectations for globaleconomic growth rose to net 38% from net18%, the highest level since Jul'21. For the past two years, economic performancehas lagged that of the S&P 500 index; they are Just 9% of FMS investors say a globalrecession is likelyin the next 12 months, thelowest level since Jan’22; in contrast, 69%forecast recession back in Apr’25. Separately the share of investors expecting a“boom”in the next 12 months rose to thehighest level since Sep’21 (34%). Net 44% of FMS investors expect globalprofits to improve in the next 12 months,themost since Jul’21. Investor EPS optimism is now clearlydiscounting a material improvement in global Source:BofA Global Fun