2025年第四季度空间投资报告

Space A Framework forUnderstanding the Traditionally, space has been viewed in terms of physicalinfrastructure—rockets, satellites, and other orbital assets.However, this perspective overlooks the broader impact This report breaks down private investment inthe space economy into three key categories, Focusing solely on pure-playInfrastructure companieswhile ignoring the Distributionand Applications layers risksmissing critical developments (DFKWHFKQRORJ\OD\HUUHȵHFWVGL΍HUHQWIDFHWVRIWKHRSSRUWXQLW\set and has its own distinct features and growth drivers. ForWKRVHIRFXVHGRQDQDUURZHUGHȴQLWLRQRIWKHVSDFHHFRQRP\ZHdirect your attention to the Infrastructure section, which includesFRPSDQLHVFRPPRQO\FRQVLGHUHGȊFRUHȋVSDFHȴUPVȃVXFKDVWKRVH The Space IQ provides a comprehensiveframework for understanding the space We believethe history of GPS— which has generatedtrillions of dollars in economic value — provides a keyframework for understanding how large ecosystemsform around space-based technologies, paving the wayIRUVLJQLȴFDQWLQQRYDWLRQDQGH[SDQVLRQ2XUUHSRUWorganizes this into three critical categories, or technology We hope our report serves asa valuable guide to navigating Infrastructure Hardware and software to build, launch, and operate space-based assets, such as rockets, satellites, propulsion systems, :KHQZHȴUVWLQWURGXFHGRXU*36EDVHGIUDPHZRUNLWwas considered contrarian. Today, it is widely acceptedby founders, investors, and established corporations. Hardware and software to connect, process, and managedata from space-based assets, such as GPS-based navigation LEARN MORE IN OURCONVERSATION WITH THEWORLD ECONOMIC FORUM Applications Specialized hardware and software that utilizes data fromspace-based assets, such as rideshare services (GPS),agricultural data analytics (GEOINT), IoT sensor monitoring Trusted by Investors, Institutions, and Governments 6SDFHΖ4LVPDQXDOO\FXUDWHGIURPFRPSDQLHVDQGFLWHGE\0RUJDQ6WDQOH\&LWL'R'1$6$DQG(6$DVWKHKLJKHVWVLJQDOEHQFKPDUNIRUWKHVSDFHHFRQRP\ Pair with PitchBook for deal terms and Novaspace for market sizing. Q4 2025SPACE IQ Strategic Competition & The “Golden Dome”*HRSROLWLFVKDVHVWDEOLVKHGDSHUPDQHQWȵRRUIRUVSDFHLQYHVWPHQW:LWKWKHȊ*ROGHQ'RPHȋPLVVLOHGHIHQVHDUFKLWHFWXUHȊPDQHXYHUDELOLW\ȋ As we turn the page to 2026, our thesis remains steadfast, butthe opportunities are evolving from access tointegration%DVHG The SpaceX IPO: The “Netscape Moment”&RQGLWLRQVDUHDOLJQLQJIRUD6SDFH;Ζ32LQ:LWKRYHUPLOOLRQ6WDUOLQNsubscribers and a direct-to-cell roadmap intercepting global For the last decade, the space economyKDVEHHQGHȴQHGE\SURPLVHΖQWKHQH[WGHFDGHLWZLOOEHGHȴQHGE\XWLOLW\ The Signal in the Noise: A Flight to Quality The topline growth in 2025 masks a deeper, more importantstructural shift in the market: a bifurcation between “tourist :HFORVHWKHERRNVRQDJDLQVWDFRPSOH[PDFURHFRQRPLFEDFNGURS7KH\HDUZDVERRNHQGHGE\WKHȊ*UHDW)UHH]HȋDKLVWRULFGD\86IHGHUDOJRYHUQPHQWVKXWGRZQWKDWEHJDQ Throughout the year, we saw the broader public marketsharshly reject consumer-facing companies and softwareȴUPVWKDWODFNHGDFRPSHOOLQJ$ΖGULYHQJURZWKVWRU\7KH The Bottom Line In 2026, we stop counting launches and start valuing what thoselaunches deliver. The bottleneck is no longer getting to space, itis building the industrial base once we are there. The AI Energy Crisis Looks UpwardTerrestrial power gridsDUHVWUDLQLQJXQGHUWKHH[SRQHQWLDOFRPSXWHGHPDQGVRI$ΖΖQWKHQDUUDWLYHVRI6SDFHDQG$ΖZLOOFROOLGHRYHUDVLQJXODUERWWOHQHFN(QHUJ\0LFURVRIW$PD]RQDQG*RRJOHDUHKXQWLQJ The companies that can leverage this infrastructure tosolve terrestrial challenges, from climate resilience to global While the FAA was forced to issue emergency orders limitingcommercial launches to overnight windows to reduce strain onDVNHOHWRQFUHZDLUWUDɝFFRQWUROV\VWHPFRPPHUFLDORSHUDWRUV 7KUHHFULWLFDOGHYHORSPHQWVLQ4XQGHUVFRUHWKLVWUDQVLWLRQ No Longer a Single Player GameFor years, the spaceeconomy’s single greatest point of failure was its reliance on a For the savvy investor, 2026 isn’t just another year of Let’s get to work.® 7KHGDWDLVXQHTXLYRFDO7KHȊVNHSWLFLVPSKDVHȋLVH΍HFWLYHO\ Consolidation of the Old GuardIn Europe, the announcementRIȊ3URMHFW%URPRȋȃDQLQLWLDWLYHWRFRPELQHWKHVSDFHbusinesses of Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo—is a tacit admission The Rise of “World Models”3HUKDSVPRVWVLJQLȴFDQWO\investment in Applications hit $30.2 billion this year, drivenE\DPDVVLYHELOOLRQVXUJHLQWR*(2Ζ17 *HRVSDWLDO The Entrepreneurial Space Age Executive Summary The data from this report is available inan interactive formaton our website. Infrastructure Hardware and software to build, launch, andoperate space-based assets like SpaceX 6LQFH  WKH 6DWHOOLWHV LQGXVWU\ KDV OH