2025年第三季度空间投资季度报告

SpaceInvestmentQuarterly A complete view of private market startup activity and investmenttrends in the space economy – from the investors at the forefront A Framework forUnderstanding theSpace Economy Traditionally, space has been viewed in terms of physicalinfrastructure—rockets, satellites, and other orbital assets.However, this perspective overlooks the broader impactof space-based technology, which has become a globalplatform for innovation. Entrepreneurs and establishedcompanies are building on these technologies to createtheir own unique services and solutions, driving growthacross multiple sectors. Focusing solely on pure-playInfrastructure companieswhile ignoring the Distributionand Applications layers risksmissing critical developmentsand emerging commercialopportunities. Rapidly evolvingspace-tech platforms, softwareapplications, and AI are not onlyexpanding the space economybut also revolutionizing daily life. This report breaks down private investment inthe space economy into three key categories,providing a holistic view of the commercialspace ecosystem. Each technology layer reflects different facets of the opportunityset and has its own distinct features and growth drivers. Forthose focused on a narrower definition of the space economy, wedirect your attention to the Infrastructure section, which includescompanies commonly considered “core” space firms—such as thoseinvolved in building rockets and orbital hardware. The Space IQ provides a comprehensiveframework for understanding the spaceeconomy and emerging opportunitiesfor investors. We believethe history of GPS— which has generatedtrillions of dollars in economic value — provides a keyframework for understanding how large ecosystemsform around space-based technologies, paving the wayfor significant innovation and expansion. Our reportorganizes this into three critical categories, or technologylayers: Infrastructure, Distribution, and Applications.Infrastructure—like satellites on orbit—acts as thefoundation. On top of this, new hardware and softwareservices are developed to distribute and transform datafor widespread use. This Distribution then fuels thecreation of thousands of commercial Applications, rangingfrom devices to mobile apps. We hope our report serves asa valuable guide to navigatingthese opportunities. Infrastructure Hardware and software to build, launch, and operate space-based assets, such as rockets, satellites, propulsion systems,robotic systems, lunar landers, and more. When we first introduced our GPS-based framework, itwas considered contrarian. Today, it is widely acceptedby founders, investors, and established corporations.McKinsey and the World Economic Forumshare ourperspective, projecting a $1.8 trillion global space economyby 2035, driven by both “backbone” and “reach” usecases—the latter being companies like Uber that rely onspace technology to generate revenue. Distribution Hardware and software to connect, process, and managedata from space-based assets, such as GPS-based navigationservices, Earth Observation data management platforms,edge computing for satellite-based ISPs, and more. LEARN MORE IN OURCONVERSATION WITH THEWORLD ECONOMIC FORUM Applications Specialized hardware and software that utilizes data fromspace-based assets, such as rideshare services (GPS),agricultural data analytics (GEOINT), IoT sensor monitoring(SatCom), parametric weather insurance (GEOINT), and more. Trusted by Investors, Institutions, and Governments Space IQ is manually curated from 3,000+ companies and cited by Morgan Stanley, Citi, DoD,NASA, and ESA as the highest-signal benchmark for the space economy. Q3 2025SPACE IQ Blue Origin is scaling up its suborbital fleet to meet demand,while the second launch of New Glenn, the company’s largerorbital vehicle, slipped past Q3—a schedule wobble thatmatters for certifications and customer confidence. The marketneeds more heavy-lift capacity, but until New Glenn is flyingregularly (and sticking landings), Blue’s growth story remains“promising” vs “proven.” On lunar, momentum is clearer: aLuxembourg partnership for resource mapping and a $190MNASA task order to deliver a large, water-hunting roverextended Blue’s footprint beyond launch. Our updated view ofBlue’s capitalization—based on headcount, product maturation,and contracting—suggests ~$25B in cumulative founderinvestment over 23 years, peaking around $5B in 2024 andeasing as new leadership drives efficiency and initial operatingrevenue arrives. Exit market selective, not euphoric Realizations were $33.2B across 29 exits (26 M&A, 3 IPOs). TheIPO window is cracking open, but it’s not 2021: scale beatsstory. Firefly priced ~61.5x TTM, Axelspace around ~15.0x,and Via ~9.1x. M&A remains the primary path, with medianstep-ups ~2.1x—well below the 2.8x seen at the peak—while“picks-and-shovels” acquisitions quietly tighten supply chainsin digital payloads, routing, and optical systems. Public equitiesbifurcated on exe