2025年第四季度收益简报：1月29日
US Equity Strategy Equity Strategy 4Q25 Earnings Brief: January 29 Americas Sean SimondsStrategistsean.simonds@ubs.com Yesterday, Meta reported 4Q result with 2026 Capital Expenditure guided to $115B-$135B vs Street/UBSe at ~$113B/~$110B, 4Q25 Advertising Revenue of $58.1B came inabove consensus $56.6B and above UBSe $56.4B (link). Tesla gross profit was $5bn for20.1% margins vs 18% in 3Q25 and 16.3% in 4Q24; this compares to UBS forecast of16.1% and consensus of 17% margin (link). Microsoft reported relatively in-line, with a1.2% sales beat and a 4.3% earnings surprise. Maxwell Grinacoff, CFAStrategistmaxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com Andrew GarthwaiteStrategistandrew.garthwaite@ubs.com 31.8% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues togrow 7.5% and EPS by 9.8%. Projected EPS growth among groups varies significantly, Gerry FowlerStrategistgerry.fowler@ubs.com Expected EPS Growth YoY TECH+: 23.6%Financials: 10.0%Non-Cyclicals: -1.4%Cyclicals ex-Energy: -2.1% The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as agroup (EPS growth 24.5% vs. 4.9%), though forecasts vary for each company: Big 6 TECH+ EPS Growth (Expected vs. Actual, YoY) META– 4Q25E: 2.4%; 4Q25A:10.6%MSFT– 4Q25E: 22.9%; 4Q25A:28.1%GOOGL– 4Q25E: 20.8%; 4Q25A: Wednesday 02/04AAPL– 4Q25E: 8.8%; 4Q25A: Thursday 01/29AMZN– 4Q25E: 9.9%; 4Q25A: Thursday 02/05NVDA– 4Q25E: 69.3%; 4Q25A: Wednesday 02/25 Current consensus estimates suggest only TECH+ and Materials are expected to outpacethe S&P 500, while Discretionary ex-AMZN looks to be a drag on 4Q earnings. Earnings are beating estimates by 5.7% on aggregate so far, with 71% of companiestopping projections to date. EPS is on pace for 11.6%, assuming the historical trend of Over the next 5 trading days, 134 companies representing 31.4% of the S&P 500'smarket cap will report results, including Apple, Visa, Exxon Mobil, Palantir Technologies,Walt Disney, AMD, Alphabet and Eli Lilly. S&P 500 Expected 4Q EPS Growth is now11.6% YoY TECH+ has had an outsized impact onS&P 500 EPS growth over the past S&P 500 EPS Growth The median company is expected tooutgrow the cap-weighted index in 7 On a median basis, Tech+ andFinancials are expected to see the Earnings – Growth TECH+ and Materials are expected tooutpace the rest of the market Discretionary ex-AMZN is expectedto be a drag S&P 500 is expected to grow at14.7% based on consensus estimates Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBSNote: AMZN included in TECH+, not Discretionary EPS Growth - Industry Group Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS EPS Revisions Earnings estimates typically declinegoing into reporting season, and Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Tech+ is still a positive for S&P 500earnings, but the overhang from ex-Tech may be subsiding Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS, Note: S&P 500 excluding BA due to one time gain. EPS Revisions Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Even for ex-Tech which had beenrevised down -3% historically Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS EPS Revisions Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS 4Q25 Calendar Source: Standard & Poor’s, Bloomberg, FactSet, UBS Historical Surprise Trends Historical Growth Trends Historical Growth Trends Full Year Revisions Please contact us to be added to our daily distribution list. The authors would like to thankBharat Jainfor assisting in the preparation of this Valuation Method and Risk Statement Equity market returns are influenced by corporate earnings, interest rates, risk premia, as wellas other variables influenced by the business cycle. The outlook for any and all of these Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates,including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS". For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product;historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms andconditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwiseindicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterlyreports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not areliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed toconduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principal
