杰森·戈德堡的银行简报 第22卷，第98期2025年5月29日
Restricted - External U.S. Large-Cap BanksPOSITIVEU.S. Large-Cap BanksJason M. Goldberg, CFA+1 212 526 8580jason.goldberg@barclays.comBCI, US Quote of the Day 3. “Several participants noted that factors such as elevated economicuncertainty and a possible decline in real disposable income due totariff-relatedincreases inprices could lead to increased precautionary saving and reduced consumer demand. A coupleof participants noted that a deterioration in financial market sentiment could also weigh onconsumer demand…Regarding factors that might mitigate negativeeffectsoftariffsonconsumer spending, a few participants observed that the strength in the balance sheets ofmany households could help them absorb atariff-inducedreduction in their purchasing power;lower energy prices might help lessen strains on households’ budgets; and households mightshiftspending from goods to services, which are likely to be lessaffectedbytariffs.”~ FOMCminutes from its May 6-7 meeting, posted yesterday(additional quotes below)Quote of the Day 4.“The banking industry continued to show resilience in the first quarter withimprovements in ROA. However, the industry still faces weakness in certain loan portfolios,economic uncertainty, elevated inflation and interest rates, tighter credit, and elevatedunrealized losses. These issues will remain matters of ongoing supervisory attention by theFDIC.” ~ FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile (QBP) First Quarter 2025 released yesterdayChart of the Day.Yesterday, the FDIC posted its Quarterly Banking Profile (QBP). Revenuesincreased 5% y-o-y and rose 2% sequentially to $262.5bn, a record high. Over the past 20 yearsindustry revenues have basically doubled while headcount is slightly lower. See today’s Chartof the Day.For many more charts, see 1Q25 Quarterly Bank Chartbook (5/28/25).Today's TasksCONFERENCE: 9:00amGS, 2:30pmC, 3:30pmBK8:30am - Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin:participates in afireside chat before the Housing Partnership Network8:30am - GDP:no revision is the call from the advance report at -0.3%8:30am - Jobless Claims:consensus at 230k vs. 227k in the previous week10:00am - Pending Home Sales Index:consensus looks for a 1.1% retreatafterthe 6.1% jumpin March10:40am - Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee:participates in amoderated Q&A session before the 2025 Mackinac Policy Conference hosted by the DetroitRegional Chamber12:00pm - JPM CEO JAMIE DIMON:Fireside chat with CNBC's Morgan Brennan at RonaldReagan Presidential Foundation’s national economic forum;webcast HERE2:00pm - Federal Reserve Board Governor Adriana Kugler:gives opening remarks beforevirtual 5th Annual Federal Reserve Board Macro-Finance Workshop4:00pm - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly:participates in firesidechat before the Oakland Rotary Club4:30pm - Federal Reserve balance sheet:weekly H.4.1 report released8:25pm - Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan:gives opening remarks andparticipates in moderated conversation before the Greater Waco Member Appreciation eventMarket MattersYesterday, the Barclays Large-Cap Bank index fell 1.0% while the S&P 500 declined 0.6%.The XLF (-0.7%), BKX (-1.0%) and KRE (-1.6%) all declined. Our Money Center (-0.7%), SuperRegional (-1.1%) and Trust Bank (-1.4%) indices all declined to varying degrees. Still,the MoneyCenters outperformed both the Trust Banks and Super Regionals for the 3rd straightsession. ALLY (+0.3%), KEY (0%), WFC (-0.4%), BAC (-0.4%), C (-0.6%) and STT (-0.6%) wereyesterday's top performers while NTRS (-2.0%), TFC (-1.7%), CFG (-1.7%), ZION (-1.6%), BK(-1.6%) and RF (-1.6%) dropped the most.BAC and C have outperformed the Barclays Large-Cap Bank index in each of the past 3 sessions. On the other end, FCNCA has lagged for 9straight while RF has underperformed for 6 consecutive trading days.2 The 10yr treasury yield rose 3bps to 4.47% while the 2s/10s increased 2bps to +48bps.TheBloomberg U.S. Credit Index ended the day 1bp tighter closing at 83bp, and the CDX.IG indexwas unchanged closing at 56bp. The Bloomberg High Yield Index gained $0.01 closing at $95.48,and the CDX.HY index was down $0.08 ending the day at $106.04.U.S. stock futures are higher this morning as a federal court knocked down PresidentDonald Trump’s “reciprocal”tariffs.Last night night, the U.S. Court of International Traderuled that Trump overstepped his authority when he imposed his “reciprocal”tariffs. Thecourt ordered that the challengedtarifforders be vacated. Solid earnings from NVDA alsohelped. Futures tied to the S&P 500 are up 1.2% this morning, while Nasdaq 100 futuresgained 1.7%. Dow futures climbed around 300 points, or 0.7%. U.S. Treasury yields movedhigher this morning with the 30-year Treasury (+5bps), 10-year Treasury (+5bps) and 2-year (+4bps) yields all higher.The pan-European Stoxx 600 is up 0.4% in mid-morning trading,with most sectors in positive territory.Tariff-sensitivetech, mining and autos stocks led gains
