杰森·戈德堡的银行简报 第22卷，第110期2025年6月16日

Jason Goldberg's Bank Brief |Volume 22, Issue 110 | 6.16.25 JPM’s Gori reportedly relocating to New York; Severeregulatory enforcement actions at 2-year low QTD; H.8 loansdecline for only the 3rd time in 11 weeks while deposits rosefor 3rd time in 4 weeks; Fed set June 27 for stress test results,see today’s capital outlook report; Webinar this Wednesday U.S. Large-Cap BanksPOSITIVE U.S. Large-Cap BanksJason M. Goldberg, CFA+1 212 526 8580jason.goldberg@barclays.comBCI, US For more than 21 years now, we love that you start each morning with the BankBrief.We would really appreciate your 5-star vote in the Extel (formerly known asInstitutional Investor or I.I.) 2025 All-America Research Survey for Financial Institutions→ Banks Largecap→ Barclays → Jason Goldberg/5-stars. For additional details seeHERE.Vote HERE. Research Released CAPITAL OUTLOOK: SCB improvement near-term, more meaningful changes looking out (6/16/25). We expect capital requirements to decline post the stress test owing to a lessstrenuous exam, resulting in increased dividends and continued share buyback. Looking out, weexpect regulators to improve the stress test, revisit GSIB surcharge, roll back B3E and alter SLR,lowering capital targets. Bank Brief BANTER – Ten takeaways from last week(6/15/25). Last week several presented ata conference. NII is in-line to better than expected with loans generally higher and NIM grindingup, fee trends mixed though positive operating leverage persists, asset quality generally stable,share buyback continues, and regulatory changes welcomed but M&A quiet. Weekly Bank Briefing(6/15/25). Average assets are tracking up 0.8% QTD with securities(+2.5%) and loans (+1.3%; NDFI & C&I) higher and cash (-6.3%) lower. Trading revs are looking upmid- to high-single digits y-o-y and seasonally lower sequentially. While IB fees could fall 10-20%from 1Q25, results improved during the quarter. Large-Cap Banks Valuation Table(6/13/25 close) Wednesday Webinar Workshop Last week I served on the faculty for the 2025 session of the ABA Stonier Graduate School ofBanking, teaching a one-day class entitled “Bank Stock Outlook, Forecasting & Valuation” at theWharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. This was my 9th consecutive year teaching Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 13.Completed: 16-Jun-25, 11:25 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 11:29 GMTRestricted - External this 4-hour course. In the morning session of the class, we focused on how to forecast bankearnings and its drivers, as well as review recent results and current events impacting the sectorincluding the regulatory backdrop and private credit/NBFIs. In theafternoon,we discussed ouroutlook for bank stocks, explored whatdifferentiatesbanks, and learned how to value bankstocks using a portion of our Super Regional bank coverage universe as an example.ThisWednesday from 10:00am-12:00pm ET we are hosting a 2-hour webinar which iscondensed version of this course. We believe this will be of particular interest to summerinterns or recent hires. For registration details and to see the deck will be using see here:TEACHING MATERIALS/WEBINAR – Bank Stock Outlook, Forecasting & Valuation(posted 6/5/25) Daily Dose Chart of the Day.Today's Chart of the Day, compares our estimates for the banks’ capitalrequirements starting in 4Q25, post June 29's stress test, to their current CET1 ratios (with andwithout AOCI opt-out provision). For a great deal more on the stress test and our expectationscapital requirements reform, see todays' report:CAPITAL OUTLOOK: SCB improvement near-term,more meaningful changes looking out (6/16/25). Today's Tasks Today – Credit Card Trust Data:BAC, C, JPM8:30am - Empire State Manufacturing Index:consensus sees the index at -7.0 in June, a littlebetter from -9.2 in May and -8.1 in April Market Matters Friday, the Barclays Large-Cap Bank index declined 2.2% double the S&P 500's 1.1% fall.The Barclays Large-Cap Bank index has now underperformed for the market for 5 straightsessions. The XLF (-2.0%) and BKX (-2.1%) followed by the KRE (-2.7%) closed lower. Our TrustBank (-1.3%), Money Center (-1.8%) and Super Regional (-2.6%) composites all fell aseveryname under coverage declined by more than 1%.BAC, NTRS, JPM, FCNCA and BK all fell1.2% while CMA (-4.4%), MTB (-3.2%), KEY (-2.9%), HBAN (-2.8%) and USB/ZION/RF/FITB (-2.6%)dropped more than 2.5%.JPM has outperformed the Barclays Large-Cap Bank index ineach of the past 5 sessions while WFC has closed lower and underperformed for 4 straight. Last week, the S&P 500 declined 0.4%. While a US-China trade dea