杰森·戈德堡的银行简报 第22卷，第97期2025年5月28日

Jason Goldberg's Bank Brief |Volume 22, Issue 97 | 5.28.25 C announces agreement to sell consumer banking business inPoland, just Mexico IPOleft;JPM acceleratesaffluentofferingby reopening FRC financial centers in 4 states; STT, APO filefor 2nd public-private ETF; Changes to SLR could reportedlycome as early as next month; FDIC’s QBP today... U.S. Large-Cap BanksPOSITIVE U.S. Large-Cap BanksJason M. Goldberg, CFA+1 212 526 8580jason.goldberg@barclays.comBCI, US Research Released A dozen banking industry observations from JPM’s Investor Day(5/22/25). Each year,investors attend BRK’s annual meeting to learn about investing. Somewhat similarly, analystslook to gather intel on bank stocks at JPM’s Investor Day. Herein, we take what we learned in 5hours from several execs and apply that knowledge to the rest of our coverage with a dozenlaterals. 1Q25 GSIB Surcharge Tracker: GS up 50bps in 2026, Several could see hikes lookingout(5/23/25). Under the current construct, GS will see a 50bp increase to its GSIB surcharge in2026. BAC and JPM could see increases in 2027 unless they each lower their scores by year-end.C, GS, MS and JPM all need to see their scores decline to avoid increases in 2028. Still, changescould be on the horizon. Weekly Bank Briefing(5/25/25). Avg assets are up 0.8% QTD with securities (+2.5%) and loans(+1.2%) higher and cash (-5.8%) lower. Within loans, NDFI and C&I are up, resi R/E and consumerare stable, and CRE is lower. Last week, JPM said it sees 2Q y-o-y trading revs up mid-to-highsingle-digit and IB fees down in the mid-teens. Daily Dose Chart of the Day. Yesterday's Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose 12.3pts inMay, to 98.0, a fair bit above expectations (Barclays: 83.0 and consensus: 88.0) and a few shadesbelow its February level. In our view, the retracement of March's and April's declines reflectsdevelopments since the "Liberation Day" reciprocaltariffannouncement, including the three-month freeze of country-specifictariffrates of up to 50% in favor of a flat 10% universaltariffand, more recently, a mutual reduction of US-Chinatariffsthat had well exceeded 100% just afew weeks ago.See today's Chart of the Day. Quote of the Day 1."As the current Administration pursues a deregulatory agenda in the nameof growth, care should be taken not to remove the load-bearing resilience built into markets...Iam concerned about big swings between more regulation and deregulation with each change ofparty in the White House. This leads to uncertainty in markets. It would be better for our Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 11.Completed: 28-May-25, 11:35 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 11:39 GMTRestricted - External markets and financial system if regulators could follow a steady, consistent path. That wouldcreate the foundation for a resilient, stable, and vibrant financial system and economy. It’s areally tough challenge—one that requires independent regulators engaging with each other ona bipartisan basis and engaging with many stakeholders who use and need U.S. markets." ~CFTC Commissioner Christy Goldsmith Romero farewell remarks at Brookings yesterdayQuote of the Day 2. “They (businesses) do think there’s a light at the end of the tunnel, thatthere will be some certainty, whether it’s the tax bill or some of the trade terms, but I thinkthey’re just waiting it out…Consumer sentiment, which historically has been stronglycorrelated with consumer spending, has not seemed to be for the last two or three years.Nothing I’m seeing in the real time spending data suggests that spending is dropping.” ~ FederalReserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin on Bloomberg TV yesterday Today's Tasks 10:00am - FDIC QUARTERLY BANKING PROFILE (QBP):to release its quarterly report card onthe financial condition of the U.S. banking system for 1Q2512:00pm - Vice President JD Vance:speaks at Bitcoin 202512:00pm - CFTC’s Energy & Environmental Markets Advisory Committee:to discuss reportsby Metals Markets in Transitional Energy and Physical Energy Infrastructure subcommittees2:00pm - FOMC Minutes:for May 7 policy statement Market Matters Yesterday, the Barclays Large-Cap Bank index rose 2.2% while the S&P 500 increased2.0%.Afterwatching the Barclays Large-Cap Bank index underperform the S&P 500 for 6straight sessions, it has now outperformed for 3 in a row. The KRE (+2.4%) and BKX (+2.3%)outperformed the market while the XLF (+1.8%) lagged. Our Money Center (+2.4%), SuperRegional (+2.2%) and Trust Bank (+1.9%) indices all increased.Every name under coveragerose by 0.7% or more.ALLY (+3.6%), C (+3.3%), NT