2025年第四季度收益简报：1月26日

US Equity Strategy Equity Strategy 4Q25 Earnings Brief: January 26 Americas Sean SimondsStrategistsean.simonds@ubs.com 13.8% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues togrow 7.3% and EPS 9.1%. Projected EPS growth among groups varies significantly, as Maxwell Grinacoff, CFAStrategistmaxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com Expected EPS Growth YoY TECH+: 21.9%Financials: 9.9%Non-Cyclicals: -1.8% Andrew GarthwaiteStrategistandrew.garthwaite@ubs.com Gerry FowlerStrategistgerry.fowler@ubs.com The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as agroup (EPS growth 22.5% vs. 4.6%), though forecasts vary for each company (MSFT:22.9%, META: 2.2%, GOOG: 20.9%, NVDA: 69.3%, AAPL: 8.7%, AMZN: 9.8%). Current consensus estimates suggest only TECH+ and Materials are expected to outpacethe S&P 500 while Discretionary ex-AMZN looks to be a drag on 4Q earnings. Earnings are beating estimates by 6.9% on aggregate so far, with 77% of companiestopping projections to date. EPS is on pace for 11.9%, assuming the historical trend of Over the next 5 trading days, 103 companies representing 33.4% of the S&P 500'smarket cap will report results, including UnitedHealth Group, Boeing, Microsoft, Meta, S&P 500 Expected 4Q EPS Growth is now11.9% YoY Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS TECH+ has had an outsized impact onS&P 500 EPS growth over the past S&P 500 EPS Growth The median company is expected tooutgrow the cap-weighted index in 6 On a median basis, Tech+ andFinancials are expected to see the Earnings – Growth TECH+ and Materials are expected tooutpace the rest of the market Discretionary ex-AMZN is expectedto be a drag Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBSNote: AMZN included in TECH+, not Discretionary; blend of actuals where available and estimates S&P 500 is expected to grow at14.7% based on consensus estimates Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBSNote: AMZN included in TECH+, not Discretionary EPS Growth - Industry Group Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS EPS Revisions Earnings estimates typically declinegoing into reporting season, and Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Tech+ is still a positive for S&P 500earnings, but the overhang from ex-Tech may be subsiding Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS EPS Revisions Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Even for ex-Tech which had beenrevised down -3% historically Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS EPS Revisions Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS 4Q25 Calendar Historical Surprise Trends Historical Growth Trends Historical Growth Trends Full Year Revisions Please contact us to be added to our daily distribution list. The authors would like to thankBharat Jainfor assisting in the preparation of this Valuation Method and Risk Statement Equity market returns are influenced by corporate earnings, interest rates, risk premia, as wellas other variables influenced by the business cycle. The outlook for any and all of these Required Disclosures This document has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates,including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS". For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product;historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms andconditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit https://www.ubs.com/disclosures. Unless otherwiseindicated, information and data in this report are based on company disclosures including but not limited to annual, interim, quarterlyreports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not areliable indicator of future results. Additional information will be made available upon request. UBS Securities Co. Limited is licensed toconduct securities investment consultancy businesses by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. UBS acts or may act as principalin the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 26 January2026 04:09 AM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts wherethose department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide informationreasonably sufficient upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction. Where Derivatives Research Analysts co- Analyst Certification: Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or