流动秀：货币贬值是基本情形

Debasement is Da Base Case Scores on the Doors: gold 24.2%, oil 13.9%, commods 12.1%, global stocks 6.8%, USstocks 1.8%, HY bonds 1.1%, IG 1.1%, govt bonds 1.0%, US$ -2.2%, bitcoin -3.7% YTD. 29 January 2026 Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist: “Charts are better than sentiment,” HK trader. The Price is Right: silver 61%, Korea 28%, UFO 22%, Brazil 20%, SOX 17%, materials14%, oil 14%, Aussie dollar 5% YTD, beneficiaries as rate/tax/tariff cuts + Fed/Trump QEspark capitulation into liquidity and debasement trades. Tale of the Tape: US$ down 12% since Trump inauguration; note weak US$ goodpolicy to boost manufacturing in“rustbelt”swing states (PA, MI, WI); in both Trump 1st&2ndterms Presidential approval and US$ highly correlated (Charts 3 & 4); peak-to-troughdrop in US$ bears since’70 = 30% (gold & EM stocks big asset outperformers in each of5 US$ bear markets - Table 1 & Chart 15). MichaelHartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: 10-year return from 25/25/25/25 stocks/bonds/gold/cash“permanent portfolio”= 8.7% (best since 1992 - Chart 2), follows 23% gain in’25 (bestyear since 1979–Chart 5); long gold was contrarian“pain trade”in 2020 for secularasset allocators…in 2026 it’s long bonds. Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy. The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitablefor all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business withissuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 12 to 14.12927301 Timestamp: 29 January 2026 11:19PM EST Weekly Flows: $10.0bn to cash, $17.0bn to bonds, $6.7bn to gold, $0.4bn from crypto,$15.4bn from stocks. Flows to Know: •Gold: $6.7bn inflow, biggest since Oct’25;•Materials: record $11.8bn inflow (Chart 16);•Energy: $2.3bn inflow, biggest since Oct’23 (Chart 17);•Infrastructure: $0.8bn inflow, biggest since Jun’22 (Chart 18);•Utilities: $0.8bn outflow, biggest since Nov’24 (Chart 19);•China equities: record $60.5bn outflow, 2ndweek of big outflow (we say likelyrelated to“national team”selling1- Chart 20). BofA Private Clients: $4.4tn AUM…64.4% stocks, 17.7% bonds, 10.7% cash; past 4weeks private clients buying IG bond, muni bond, and TIPS ETFS, selling REIT, HY bond,and value stock ETFs. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: up to extreme bull 9.4 from 9.2 on strong global stockindex breadth, long-only bull positioning (e.g., record low 3.2% FMS cash level), androbust credit market technicals, which offset global equity outflows; BofA Bull & BearIndicator“sell signal”still in operation; note“old”B&B Indicator2down to 6.4 from 7.0. BofA Global Breadth Rule: 89% of MSCI global stock indices trading above both 50-day & 200-day moving averages this week…stocks in“overbought”territory (rule is>88% =“sell signal”for risk assets). 2020s: 2020s investment trends (Chart 6)…political populism, globalization to nationalsecurity, global fiscal excess, Fed independence to deference, US exceptionalism toglobal rebalancing, AI nationalization, AI = UBI = YCC…why gold going“bubbly”(Chart 7),why new bulls in small/mid cap & international equities, why US$ debasement tradesfrontrunning risk of peaks in US 64% global equity market cap, 55% global corporatebond market, 50% global government bond market (if non-US asset allocators cut stock& Treasury holdings by 5% = $1.5tn capital outflow3at time of $1.4tn current accountdeficit & $1.7tn budget deficit; BIG + MID in 2026: fave trades for 2026… •long Bonds…Main St disinflation & Wall St deleveraging hedge…buy 30-yearTreasury as yield approaches 5%; •long In