经济周刊2026年中期展望

William Blair If the first full month of 2026 is any indication, this year’smidterm elections will be hard-fought. Primary contestsbegin in March and will give voters an early say in whichcandidates and issues appear on the November ballot. His-tory generally does not favor the party in the White House,and with Republicans facing criticism over affordability,immigration enforcement, and President Trump’s foreign The economic backdrop to this year’s midterms remainsone of strong growth, with real GDP estimated to haverisen at a 4.2% pace in the fourth quarter. Consumptionhas softened at the margin, but there is little evidence ofa material pullback, with spending supported by incomegrowth even as households remain sensitive to prices, andinflation is still running in the 2.5%–3.0% range. Recentdata also suggest that tight labor market conditions reflectsupply-side constraints rather than a meaningful weaken-ing in demand, with unemployment low and jobless claimsremaining subdued. The stock market has also continued Voter turnout dynamics also favor the Democrats (exhibit2). It is generally easier to fire up voters opposed to sit-ting presidents’ policies than to get them to turn out insupport when they think things are moving in the rightdirection. Despite occasional dips, turnout has been onthe rise since 2000. Half of all eligible voters (50.1%)cast ballots in the 2018 midterms elections, compared tojust 36.7% in 2014 and the highest turnout since 1966 Midterm elections tend to be a referendum on the in-cumbent party in the White House, which almost alwaysloses congressional seats as voters use the opportunityto voice their frustration. Since 1934, there have been 23 In the 2018 midterm elections during Trump’s first term,Democrats gained control of the House from Republicansafter netting 40 seats. The past is not always prologue, The latest opinion polls and prediction market odds alsosuggest that the GOP will maintain control of the Senateand that the more-contested House will flip to the Demo-crats. Aggregated national polling data from Real ClearPolitics on which party respondents would vote for ifcongressional elections were held today show the Demo-crats have a 5.0-percentage-point lead over the GOP. The Of the 35 Senate seats up for reelection, 13 are currentlyheld by a Democrat or Independent, and 22 by a Repub-lican. The GOP will likely maintain control of the Senate,with Republicans holding 51 seats, 45 seats to the Demo-crats, and 4 seats being a toss-up or too close to call, ac-cording to race ratings by the Cook Political Report. Even if Republicans hold a fragile grip on the House of Repre-sentatives: 218 seats to the Democrats’ 213, with fourvacancies. Cook’s ratings show 206 seats (includinglikely and leaning Republican) going to the GOP, com-pared with 211 to the Democrats (also including likely Data from the online prediction market Polymarket showa similar decline during the 43-day government shutdownin the odds of Democrats winning control of the House.However, the shift was less pronounced than in polling anddid not produce a sharp mid-shutdown correction or giveDemocrats stronger odds afterward. As of now, Polymarketassigns a roughly 82% probability that Democrats will gaincontrol of the House. The prediction market for a Demo-cratic Senate majority showed little immediate reaction to William Blair recent foreign policy actions, immigration will also be topof mind for voters. Although states redrew congressional districts after the2020 census, some are revisiting those maps ahead ofthe 2026 elections. At the urging of President Trump,Texas Republicans passed a new congressional map thatcould give their party up to five additional House seats. In It remains unclear how many states will ultimately adoptnew maps, but at least nine others have either approvednew congressional boundaries or are in the process ofdoing so ahead of the election. Redistricting efforts couldbe further complicated if the Supreme Court strikes downSection 2 of the Voting Rights Act in its ruling in Loui-siana v. Callais. The law prohibits racial discriminationin voting, and if the court issues its decision far enough Despite the strong economy, President Trump’s decliningapproval rating is blowing the political winds in favor ofthe Democrats. According to Real Clear Politics, his ratinghas steadily declined to 42.5%, nearing its level when heleft office shortly after the January 6, 2021 attack on theCapitol (41.1%). His administration has moved aggressive-ly on trade, immigration, and foreign intervention, gen- Another consideration is just how much Democratsare lagging behind their GOP counterparts in campaignfundraising. According to filings with the Federal ElectionCommission, the Republican National Committee is hold- In a Marist poll conducted November 10-13, 2025, amajority of respondents (57%) thought cost of livingshould be Trump’s top priority. Even among Republi-cans, a plurality (40%) r