2025年归母净利润预计同比增长212-233%，成本管控能力强大

2025 Profitis to increase212-233%YoY& Strong cost control capabilities 最新动态 ➢2025年归母净利润预计同比增加约212%—233%。经财务部门初步测算，预计集团2025年度实现归母净利润约15-16亿美元，同比将增加约10.2-11.2亿美元，同比增加约212%-233%。业绩预增的主要原因:（一）矿产金产量增加：2025年公司矿产金产量同比增加至约46.5吨（2024年度：约38.9吨（不含波格拉金矿产量））。（二）良好的市场及并购因素：2025年，矿产金销售价格同比上涨，加上2025年度完成并购的两个在产金矿项目于年内实现盈利，对集团业绩产生积极影响。集团提出2026年度矿产金产量计划为57吨。 动向解读 ➢公司在全球资源并购方面展现优秀。公司积极追求高潜力黄金矿山及价值被低估的低品位及难选冶黄金矿山的收购。公司在复杂的跨境收购中的全面经验，结合黄金开实行业经营和技术积淀，使公司能够准确识别并收购全球范围内的潜在高价值资产，并在收购完成后以具成本效益方式，积极利用公司强大的能力进行地质勘查和开发。公司识别并把握低成本收购机遇的往绩卓著。根据弗若斯特沙利文的资料，按黄金资源计，从2019年到2024年，公司所收购矿山的平均收购成本约为每盎司61.3美元，而同期业内平均收购成本约为每盎司92.9美元，较公司的收购成本高52%。 ➢成本管理能力强大。公司采用“矿石流五环归一”矿山项目管理程序，其基于矿石的流动而整体考虑及管理勘查、采矿、选矿、冶炼和环境保护等五个关键过程。透过这种方式，公司能有效降低建设生产成本，从而实现项目经济社会效益最大化。公司的成本管理能力强大，多个矿山收购后短时间实现扭亏为盈。于往绩记录期间，经营成本增速低于全球黄金开采企业的平均水平。苏里南罗斯贝尔金矿、塔吉克斯坦吉劳╱塔罗金矿和圭亚那奥罗拉金矿收购前均为亏损矿山，并分别在收购后的1至2年内实现盈利。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预测公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为15.42、24.14、28.91亿美元。结合可比公司估值，考虑到公司依靠并购实现外延增长给予一定估值溢价，给予公司2026年25倍PE，按照港元兑美元7.85汇率计算，对应目标价为176.89港币，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示 黄金价格波动的风险、地缘政治风险。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位，主要覆盖能源化工和有色材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过600篇，主要覆盖标的包括： 1）化工&化肥：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国联塑、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、浦林成山、中海石油化学、中国旭阳集团、龙蟠科技、彩客新能源、天德化工、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、米高集团、大成生化科技； 2）能源&公用事业：中创新航、中集安瑞科、新奥能源、长江基建集团、中煤能源、宏华集团、中海油田服务、安东油田服务、惠生工程、协合新能源、绿色动力环保、中国光大绿色环保、首钢资源、新特能源、中裕能源； 3）有色&材料：中国宏桥、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团、潼关黄金、中国罕王、中广核矿业、稀美资源、首佳科技、信义光能、华新水泥、华润建材科技、大明国际。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 188 01353 3537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction.