欧盟农业展望2025-2035

2025-2035 Completed in December 2025© European Union, 2025Reuse is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.The reuse policy of the European Commission documents is implemented byCommission Decision 2011/833/EU of 12December 2011on the reuse of Commission documents (OJ L 330, 14.12.2011, p. 39).For any use or reproduction of photos or other material that is not owned by the European Union, permission mustbe sought directly from the respective copyright holders.PDFISBN978-92-68-34364-7 ISSN 2600-0628 doi 10.2762/4491268 KF-01-25-058-EN-NWhile all efforts are made to provide sound market and income projections, uncertainties remain.The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the position oropinion of the European Commission.Contact:DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Analysis and Outlook UnitEmail:agri-outlook@ec.europa.euhttps://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/data-and-analysis/markets/outlook/medium-term_enPleasecite this publication as: EC (2025), EU agricultural outlook, 2025-2035.European Commission, DG Agriculture and Rural Development, Brussels FOREWORD BY Elisabeth WernerDirector-General I hope you will enjoy and make good use of the 2025 edition of the EU AgriculturalOutlook, now with a new format in terms of style and content. For the first time,wecomplement our medium-term market projections and environmentalindicators with an assessment of economic effects at farm level. In a period of volatile markets and high uncertainties it is essential to look intothe future and understand the longer-term prospects for the EU agrifood sector.The outlook projects slow productivity growth amidst challenges from climatechangeand higher input costs,while EU agriculture moves towards moresustainable production systems. The EU is set to maintain its self-sufficiency whileboosting trade in high-value commodities. Structural changes in farming areexpected to continue, with labour productivity growth being the primary driver ofoverall productivity gains and income growth. All this justifies strong EU policiesto support agriculture’s competitiveness and food security. These projections provide insights for all stakeholders in the EU agri-food chain,serving as a baseline to steer further policy responses to emerging challenges andopportunities,towards an attractive,competitive,resilient and sustainableagricultural sector. Enjoy the read! NOTE TO THE READER This report presentsthe medium-term outlook for EU agricultural markets and incomeuntil2035. It iscomplemented by: (i) a partial assessment of selected environmental indicators; and, forthe first time,(ii)a selection ofeconomic and environmental performance indicators for different farmtypes.The outlook is based on a set ofmacroeconomic assumptionsdeemed most plausible at thetime of the analysis, using the latest short-term forecasts available in September 2025 from theAMECO database and European Central Bank. For the medium-term macroeconomic forecasts, theEUAgricultural Outlookrelies onprojections from S&P Global and the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook2025-2034. Theagricultural marketprojectionsrely on: (i) the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook2025-2034 for the global market environment; (ii) data available up to the end of September 2025for agricultural production and trade; (iii) additional market intelligence available at the end of October2025; and (iv) theAGLINK-COSIMOagro-economic model used by the European Commission to runthe baseline simulation. Since the various assumptionsfor the baseline are subject to uncertainties,the report includes anuncertainty analysisaround the baseline, based on stochastic simulations onmacroeconomic variables and crop-yield expectations. TheEU Agricultural Outlook projectionsassume a continuation of the existing policy environment,reflecting the situation at the end of September 2025, includingtheCAP strategic plans,which arereflectedin either a direct, quantitative way (decoupled and coupled payments)or an indirect,qualitative way (other policy measures).As such, the proposalsfor the EU’s2028-2034multi-annualfinancial framework and related policy proposals are not reflected in the projections. Similarly, theprojectionsonlyincorporatetrade agreementsthat had been ratified upto the end of October 2025.Theoutlook projectionsreflectthe revision of the deep and comprehensive free trade agreements withUkraine and Moldova, but the preliminary agreement on tariffs and trade between the EU and the USfromAugust2025and the MERCOSUR agreement arenotincluded. As a result of the underlying modellingapproach, market developments are projected to follow arelatively smooth pathoverthe medium term. More precisely, thebaselineprojections correspond tothe average trends that agricultural markets are expected to follow under the various assumptionsand model parameters. To provide a more reliable comparison of trends, the report usesaveragevalues over a three-year period. For arable crops, milk, dairy products and meats, thisme