2025年新兴市场：机遇格局

Emerging Markets 2025:A Landscape of Opportunity Emerging markets (EMs) remain an efficient gateway to powerful secularthemes, from technology-driven transformations to consumer growthstories. However, expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and a strongerdollar are likely to challenge EM currencies and investor sentiment in December 2024 Portfolio Managers Marcelo Assalin, CFA, PartnerPaul BirchenoughClifford Chi-wai Lau, CFATodd McClone, CFA, PartnerCasey Preyss, CFA, Partner Global StrategistOlga Bitel, Partner Macro |Uncertainty Abounds Olga Bitel, PartnerGLOBA L STR ATEGIST EM Growth Depends on Three Developed The vast majority of EMs are small, open economies whosefortunes depend on what happens in the world’s threeprincipal demand centers: the United States, Europe,and China. Put another way, EMs are a high-beta play ondeveloped market growth. Interest rates, exchange rates, Before the U.S. election on November 5, 2024, theoutlook for the world economy looked robust andconsistent with economic expansion. Both the U.S. andEuropean economies were expected to enjoy ongoing real In addition, ongoing deceleration in inflation was expectedto support real wage gains and, by extension, privateconsumption. Meanwhile, in China, unwanted fiscal Corporate tax cuts and financial deregulation—togetherwith a specter of rising tariffs that will incentivizestockpiling—are likely to turbocharge already robust But the results of the U.S. election have made this outlookfar more uncertain. There are now many more plausible To the extent that the newly minted, time-limitedDepartment of Government Efficiency (DOGE) committeeincentivizes digitalization of federal government efforts, The United States The tax cuts from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act,due to expire next year, are now likely to becomepermanent. Corporate tax cuts usually flow directly intocorporate earnings, which are now likely to be stronger.Deregulation—especially in banks and financial services The inflation outlook is now less clear, too. We expect U.S.households will likely bear the full brunt of price increasesthat result from tariffs. Thus, higher prices mean reduced Tariffs are a regressive tax on domestic consumers; poorerconsumers pay a higher share of their income for goods andtherefore pay a higher proportion (relative to their income)of tariffs, as tariffs on steel and autos are likely in the near ““ We believe broadening tariffs toprogressively more products will hitU.S. consumers harder and couldinduce a significant destruction of We believe broadening tariffs to progressively moreproducts will hit U.S. consumers harder and could induce Olga Bitel, Partner Macro |Uncertainty Abounds(continued) EXHIBIT 1 U.S. Corporate Tax Rate (1994-2024) Corporate tax cuts and financial deregulation—together with a specter of rising tariffs that will incentivize stockpiling—are likely to turbochargealready robust growth in the United States early in 2025. EXHIBIT 2 U.S. Real Cumulative Wages Growth Real wage growth has been in decline, and with the inflation outlook less clear and tariffs on the horizon, we could induce a significant destruction ofdomestic demand. Macro |Uncertainty Abounds(continued) Tariffs are also likely to have second-round price effectson domestic producers: if we are to levy a tax on Frenchcheese and wine, Wisconsin cheese and Napa Valley wines for the U.S. economy is likely higher inflation, poorerhouseholds, and lower growth—and therefore, lowercorporate profits, too—but maybe not in 2025. Europe For more durable goods, it may be cheaper to keeprepairing an old washing machine than to buy a new one;thus, the demand for repair services will increase, and with The outlook for Europe remains challenged by domesticpolicy paralysis and inappropriately tight liquidityconditions. The rebound from the COVID trough wasarrested when the Russia-Ukraine war triggered an energy U.S. domestic price pressures are likely to intensify furtherif the proposed immigration policies—deportations andinflow reduction—are enacted. To the extent that illegalmigrants tend to fill labor-intensive jobs in construction, Germany, much like the rest of the continent, needs asignificant investment boost, but in November 2023,Germany’s constitutional court threw fiscal policies into The sequence with which the proposed policies areenacted will likely play a crucial role in actual GDP growth In addition, France is putting its own fiscal consolidationpackage in place, which could weigh on growth in 2025. EXHIBIT 3 Financial Conditions in Europe and the United States (2010-2024) The Goldman Sachs U.S. and Europe Financial Conditions Indices show challenging financial conditions in Europe. (A higher number indicates tighterfinancial conditions, which is generally considered worse for economic growth.) Macro |Uncertainty Abounds(continued) As the European Central Bank (ECB) has a single inflationmandate, it maintains monetary po