高盛工业 | 防御性板块 > 周期性板块，中国财务顾问订单，泰国汽车竞争

高盛工业|防御性板块>周期性板块，中国财务顾问订单，泰国汽车竞争.. 2 December 2025 | 7:56 AM China Standard Time Minsu KimGoldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.Global Banking & Markets TALKING POINTS要点 *Any references to we/us/our refers to the spec sales desk.* *任何提及we/us/our指的是结构性产品销售台。* Weakness in Electrification +rotation into laggardsstand out as patterns since last week when Mo’ caught up from Nov lows.Positioning scores reflected amid a choppy market environment with Japan Cables down most vs. regional Transformers yesterday.Construction Machinery (Kubota, HCM) held up relatively well.ISM Manufacturing PMImissed estimates overnight at 48.2 vs. cons.48.6.USD/JPYlower after BOJ rate hike bets go up from 60% last week to ~80% after hawkish comments from Ueda. GS still viewJan as the next rate cut (notehere). 自上周Mo从11月低点回升以来，电气化疲弱与向落后股轮动成为明显模式。仓位得分反映在震荡的市场环境中，昨日日本电缆股相较地区内变压器股跌幅最大。建筑机械（久保田、HCM）表现相对坚挺。ISM制造业采购经理人指数隔夜低于预期，为48.2，预期48.6。由于上田的鹰派言论，市场对日本央行加息的押注从上周的60%上升至约80%，美元兑日元走低。高盛仍然认为下一次降息将在1月（见此处）。 Top Inbounds / Talking Points..Yaskawatalking about +30% payout after growth investments? ..Japan defensespending at 2.5% ofGDP already priced in? .. playbook into and after FOMC/US jobs data? .. muted moves afterMicron’s $9.6bn deal to build AI memorychip plant in Japan? .. 主要流入点/讨论要点..安川谈及在增长投资后派息增加30%？..日本已将国防开支占GDP的2.5%计入价格？..在FOMC/美国就业数据公布前后的操作策略？..在美光斥资96亿美元在日本建设AI存储芯片工厂后市场反应平淡？.. In Defense, we've been observing massive de-grossing inGSXAKDEFas the basket struggles to find dip buyers. Understandably, thisis the 2nd best sector YTD up +131% vsKorea Electrification+149%. It feels like the magnitude of sell-off this time feels muchmore severe vs previous episodes of peace talk narratives; while conversations point to willingness to buy into Q4, lack of catalystsinto year-end + profit taking seem to be core drivers behind the ongoing correction. Think this time shouldn't be any different fromwhat has worked this year - buying the peace talk narrative and selling the earnings beat .. would also note that parts of 28 point USpeace proposal are under negotiation but it'sunclear on when they reach a dealgiven complexities surrounding these topics;stipulation for Ukraine to formally renounce to join NATO + surrendering territory in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. Morebroadly, investor sentiment around the theme of Defense in the region remains constructive during the conference; there’s highawareness of the need to spend more especially inJapan(NATO 3.5% + 1.5% / Korea 3.5% / Japan 2% of GDP); what’s in the price /consensus seems to be the question withJapan Heavieslooking quite muted on recent changes in budget spending; where thingslook interesting would be onshipbuilding / long range capabilities / unmanned tech. 在防务板块，我们一直观察到GSXAKDEF出现大幅抛售，因为该篮子在寻找逢低买盘方面遇到困难。可以理解的是，这是今年迄今为止表现第二好的板块，上涨131%，仅次于韩国电气化板块的149%。这次的抛售幅度感觉比以往在和平谈判叙事下的回撤都要严重得多；尽管市场谈论愿意在第四季度介入，但缺乏年终催化剂及获利了结似乎是导致持续回调的核心驱动因素。我认为这一次不应与今年行之有效的策略有所不同——在和平谈判消息时买入，在盈利超预期时卖出。还需要指出的是，美国提出的28点和平方案中的部分内容仍在谈判中，但由于这些议题的复杂性，何时达成协议尚不清楚；其中包括要求乌克兰正式放弃加入北约的权利以及在东乌克兰顿巴斯地区割让领土的规定。更广泛地说，在会议期间，该地区围绕“国防”主题的投资者情绪仍然积极；大家高度意识到尤其在日本需要增加支出（北约3.5% + 1.5% /韩国3.5% /日本占GDP的2%）；问题似乎在于这些是否已被纳入价格/共识，日本重磅股对最近预算支出的变化显得相当冷淡；有趣的领域可能在造船/远程能力/无人技术上。 In FA,InovanceNov orders +20% YoY vs +10% YoY in Oct. MoM growth +19% driven by growth in port, logistics equipment,smartphones, consumer electronics, lithium battery, semiconductor, auto equipment, air compressors end markets. Per companycomments, they saw thecompetition (in terms of pricing) less fierce than last year,and despite industry trend staying relativelymuted, the company still expects to outperform the industry trend by 10-20pp. Feels co specific / end market specific withHaitian orders flattish YoY in Nov (LSD% increase in domestic / LSD% decline in overseas). 在FA方面，英威腾（Inovance）11月新订单同比增长20%，而10月为同比增长10%。环比增长19%，由港口、物流设备、智能手机、消费电子、锂电池、半导体、汽车设备、空气压缩机等终端市场的增长带动。根据公司评论，他们认为竞争（在定价方面）比去年不那么激烈，尽管行业趋势保持相对平淡，公司仍预计将跑赢行业趋势10-20个百分点。感觉是公司/终端市场特定的，海天（Haitian）11月订单同比持平（国内小幅增长个位数/海外小幅下降个位数）。 In Autos, GIR revised up long termEurope BEV forecasts(raised BEV sales weighting in 2035 to 100% from 80%) as this is needed toachieve CO2 standards. However,team lowered 2025/26/27 BEV sales weighting forecast to 18%, 22%, and 27%respectively from19%, 25%, and 31%. Separately, latest BEV sales in Oct suggest US saw -35% YoY decline with the end of IRA subsidies. China +30%YoY. Thailand showed a clear shift toward BEVsin October, but Mitsubishi Motors said this reflects someChinese BEV makerscutting prices by ¥2.5-3.0 mnto achieve their volume targets through January 2026 (they need to return subsidies if they miss theirtargets). Separately,HMC/KIA Nov global wholesale-2.4% / -0.8% YoY inline with GSe. Eyes onUS SAARdue tmrw. 在汽车方面，GIR上调了欧洲长期纯电动汽车（BEV）预测（将2035年BEV销量权重从80%上调至100%），因为这是实现二氧化碳排放标准所必需的。然而，团队下调了2025/26/27年BEV销量权重预测，分别从19%、25%下调至18%、22%和27%。另外，最新的十月BEV销量显示美国在退税结束后同比下降35%。中国同比增长30%。泰国在十月明显转向BEV，但三菱汽车表示，这反映了一些中国BEV厂商为了在2026年1月之前完成销量目标而把价格下调了250万至300万日元（如果未达标他们需要退还补贴）。另外，