生猪周报：宏观资金躁动

2026年1月12日星期一第3周中粮期货研究院 全景扫描 供给评价：偏空。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 农产品组 需求评价：偏多（春节前）。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 关壹麟 从从从从从F3077472从从从从从Z0018177guanyilin@cofco.com 库存评价：去库。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 利润评价：盈亏线附近（春节前）。从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 偏差视点 产能恢复还有多少交易的空间？ 产能去化能否带来持续性大幅的上涨？ 免责声明 第一部分市场回顾 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从LH2609从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从12315从/从从从从从从0.57%从LH2601从从11950从/从从从从从从6.36%从LH2603从从11770从/从从从从从从0.21%从LH2605从从12215从/从从从从从从0.41%从LH2607从从12895从/从从从从从从0.70%从LH2609从从13815从/从从从从从从1.02%从LH2611从从13745从/从从从从从从0.15%从 第二部分全景扫描 生猪现货行情：从从从从从从从从12.49从/kg从从从从从1.54%从从从从从22.61%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从15kg从从从从363从/从从50kg从从从从从从1555从/从从从从从从从从从从从从从从11.14从/从从从从从从从从从从60从/从从从从从从从从从从从从129.83从/从从从从从从从从从从从从261.00从/从从从从从从从从从从从从从从25.55从/从从 标肥价差：从从150kg-120kg从175kg-120kg从200kg-120kg从从从从从从4.60%从7.77%从9.98%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 出栏体重：从从从从从从从从从从从128.54从从从从从从从0.12从从从150从从从从从从从从6.54%从90从从从从从从5.16%从从从从从从从从从从从123.87从从从从从从从从从144.45从从从从从从从0.08从从从从从从从0.67从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从77.30%从从从从从从从22.70%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 屠宰消费：从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从163.58从从从从从从从8.01%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从95.96从从从从从从从7.56%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从1279从从从从从从10.06%从从从从从从从从从从92.85%从从从从从0.21%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 库存：从从从从从从从从从从从从从19.48%从从从从从0.41%从5从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从12从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 能繁母猪：从从10从从从从从从从从从从3990从从从从从从从1.12%从从2024从11从从从2.21%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从2024从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从3900从从从102.31%从从从从从从从从从从92%-105%从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从12从从从从从从从从从从从从0.54%从从从从从从 商品猪存栏与出栏：2025从从从从从从从从16373从从从从从从从4.49%从 免责声明 从从从从4.72%从从从从从从从16000从从从从从2025从9从从从从从从从43680从从从从从从从2.83%从从从从从2.31%从从从从从从从从从从从从从2025从Q4从从从18800从从从从从从从从从从300从从从2026从Q1从从从19800从从从从从 政策：从从2025从12从31从从从从从从从5.40从从从从从从6从1从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从1从12从从1从15从从从从从从从从从从1.78从从从8从从从从从从从从从从从从从2.5从从从从从6.8从从从 免责声明 第三部分核心因素分析与跟踪 1.核心因素 从从从从从从从从从从从12从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从8从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从contango从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 从从从从从从 2.预期偏差 产能恢复还有多少交易的空间？ 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 产能去化能否带来持续性大幅的上涨？ 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 免责声明 免责声明 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 中粮期货研究院(Institute ofCOFCO Futures Co., Ltd) 从从(Address):从从从从从从从从从从从从8从从从从从A从从从从C从从从201-207从从(Phone):400-706-0158从从(Website)从www.zlqh.com 研究院公众号 再读资讯平台 中粮期货研究院介绍 从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从从 The COFCO Futures Research Instituteis a research department affiliated to COFCOFutures headquarters, responsible for the company's basic research and development work,and its research fields cover macroeconomics, agricultural products, chemicals, metals,building materials, energy and other aspects. The research institute serves the front-officebusiness department of COFCO Futures and the industrial department of COFCO Group,undertakes the responsibility of maintaining the company's brand and enhancing thecompany's image, and is engaged in the development, maintenance and value-addedservices of high-end industrial and institutional customers. Relying on the strong spotcommodities and futures markets background of COFCO Group, and based on years ofpractice, the research institute has developed a deviation response research system with thecharacteristics of COFCO Futures. The system consists of three modules: circumstanceanalysis, market response, and expected deviation. It uses higher dimensions and morediversified methods to improve the traditional research system and enhance the depth,brea