您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [美银证券]:流动秀:智力竞赛 - 发现报告

流动秀:智力竞赛

2025-12-11 - 美银证券 单字一个翔
报告封面

Quiz Show 11 December 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 62.1%, stocks 20.3%, IG bonds 10.0%, HY 9.9%, govt bonds6.0%, commodities 5.9%, cash 4.0%, bitcoin-2.7%, US dollar -9.4%, oil -19.5% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: 7.8…latest reading for revamped Bull & Bear Indicator. Zeitgeist:“Fed QE, Nvidia chips to China, $2k stimmy checks, gas prices back belowthree bucks, no wonder we’re all max bullish.” Zeitgeist:“Crazy how TMT dynamics flip when you go from asset-light to asset-heavy.” The Price is Right: Austria 100-year bond at new price low (-76% since Mar’20 peak–Chart 3)…2020s global bond bear continues; but Trump wants boom with no rise in bondyields (cue YCC, gold reval, stablecoin, energy, pharma, utilities price intervention);productivity jump = boom & lower yields, otherwise square circled by much weaker USdollar…why silver hit parity vs oil for 1sttime since 1980 - Chart 4). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: Fed QE (buying $40bn short-dated USTs per month) nixes“peakliquidity”concerns; BoJ hike on Dec 19 (plus SCOTUS) last risk to easy financial conditions;so longas JGB yield up = Japan bank stocks up, it’s back on for risk & carry trade. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com The Biggest Picture: Ferrari falling sharply vs General Motors (Chart 2); K-shape“richvs poor”consumer all the rage in’25, but markets front-running“run-it-hot”in’26 viarotation to“Main St”(MDY MidCap, IYR Small-Cap, IWC Microcap) from“Wall St”(MGCMega Cap–Chart 5). Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com Ferrari vs General Motors (price relative) Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH More on page 2… Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware thatthe firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 15 to 17.12912200 Timestamp: 11 December 2025 11:16PM EST Weekly Flows: $8.8bn to bonds, $5.8bn to stocks (smallest in 3 months), $2.3bn togold, $1.2bn to crypto (biggest in 9 weeks), $8.5bn from cash. Flows to Know: •US large cap: $0.1bn outflow, 1stoutflow in 3 months;•Tech: $0.6bn outflow (Chart 6), biggest 2-week outflow ($1.7bn) since Feb’25;•Financials: $1.1bn outflow, biggest since May’25;•Real estate: $0.7bn inflow, biggest since Oct’24. BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.9% stocks, 17.7% bonds, 10.3% cash; inflows toequities, outflows from bonds (principally T-notes & T-bills); in ETFs past 4 weeks,private clients buying high-dividend, healthcare, municipals, and selling low-volatility,consumer discretionary, and TIPS. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator 2.0: latest reading of revamped Bull & Bear Indicator is 7.8(Chart 1), i.e., investor sentiment back close to extreme bullish (Table 1); note new Bull &Bear Indicator hit a recent high of 8.9 on Oct 1st, 2025 (Chart 7), an extreme bullish levellast seen in Feb’18 & Feb’20; most recent examples of extreme bearish readings wereMar’20, Oct’22 & Mar’23. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: revamped Bull & Bear Indicator better (seeBofA Bull &Bear Indicator revamp 2025) reflects market structure and investor liquidity & riskpreferences…rise of ETF investing, changing beta of equity sectors, evolving hedgingstrategies, better measures of risk-taking in credit markets; note that… 1.The BofA Bull & Bear Indicator remains our best measure of investor positioning; itsrevamp involves some new data inputs on flows, positioning & market technicals,but broad methodology unchanged…indicator ranges from max bearish reading of 0to max bullish reading of 10 (Chart 8); B&B Indicator has and we believe willco