东北之路：生产力、就业和包容性——通过区域引擎加速国家增长的道路（英）2025

The path to accelerating national growththrough regional engines © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in thiswork do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informationshown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or theendorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may bereproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group,1818H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org Contents Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................................. 4Abbreviations....................................................................................................................................................... 5Summary................................................................................................................................................................. 61 Twin Convergence: Economic and Social Catch-up............................................................................... 121.1 How has the Northeast fared in terms of economic and social convergence?.....................151.2 Pursuing twin (economic and social) convergence.....................................................................192 Growth and Productivity.............................................................................................................................. 202.1 Drivers of growth and productivity in the Northeast................................................................212.2 The wrong growth model?................................................................................................................242.3 Pivoting to a new model for growth...............................................................................................273 Growth and productivity at the firm level............................................................................................... 303.1 How are firms performing in the Northeast?...............................................................................323.2 Drivers of firm performance............................................................................................................383.3 Key Priority Policy Actions................................................................................................................474 Mobilizing the Northeast’s Human Capital.............................................................................................. 514.1 Bringing jobs to people: the Northeast’s labor market performance......................................534.2 Bringing people to jobs: labor mobility of Northeastern workers............................................574.3 Policies for mobilizing the region’s human capital......................................................................615Modernizing Infrastructure and Increasing Connectivity.................................................................... 675.1 The Northeast’s infrastructure gap................................................................................................705.2 Obstacles to narrowing the gap.....................................................................................................725.3The Policy Agenda.............................................................................................................................. 75Special Focus - Renewable Energy and Convergence in Brazil’s Northeast....................................... 791A: Technical annex - Measuring intergenerational income mobility................................................ 862A: Technical annex - Modelling sectoral productivity growth scenarios using a dynamicinterregional computable general equilibrium model...................................................................... 872B: Technical annex - Modelling unemployment outcomes using an occupationalmobility network...................................................................................................................................... 88