被困在中间吗？印尼收入动态评估（英）

Stuck in the Middle withYou? An Assessment of Florischa Ayu Tresnatri, Akbar Nikmatullah Dachlan, Galuh ChandraWibowo, and Rifat Pasha WP/25/265 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are 2025DEC IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Department Stuck in the Middle with You? An Assessmentof Income Dynamicsin IndonesiaPrepared byFlorischaAyuTresnatri,AkbarNikmatullahDachlan, Galuh Chandra Wibowo, and Rifat Authorized for distribution by Maria Gonzalez IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:The middle class can play a pivotal role as a growth driver in achieving Indonesia’sGolden Visionof becoming a high-income country by 2045. However, it remains narrow, at under 20 percent of the totalpopulation. It is also highly vulnerable, given a waning purchasing power, and unfavorable labor marketdynamics. In contrast with the steady progress of the bottom half of the income distribution, the middle-classshare has declined since 2019, driven, inter alia, by labor market shifts toward informality, falling real incomes, RECOMMENDED CITATION:Tresnatri, F.A., Dachlan, A.N., Wibowo, G.C., and Pasha, R.2025. “Stuck in theMiddle with You? An Assessment of Income Dynamics in Indonesia”, IMF Working Paper, International Monetary Stuck in the Middle with You? AnAssessment of Income Dynamics Prepared byFlorischaAyuTresnatri,AkbarNikmatullahDachlan,GaluhChandra Wibowo, and Rifat Pasha1 Contents A.Motivation...............................................................................................................................................1B.The Evolution of the Middle-Class.......................................................................................................2C.Indonesia’s Middle-Class Characteristics at National and Provincial Level...................................5 References.........................................................................................................................................................22 Box 1. GovernmentSupportsto the Middle Class................................................................................................6 FIGURES Figure 1. World Bank and BPS Classification.......................................................................................................2Figure 2. OECD Classification..............................................................................................................................2Figure 3. Economic Classes in Indonesia.............................................................................................................3Figure 4. World Bank and BPS Classification.......................................................................................................3Figure 5. OECD Classification Calculation............................................................................................................3Figure 6. Middle Class in Peer Countries..............................................................................................................4Figure 7. Middle Class in the U.S..........................................................................................................................4Figure 8. Contribution to Total Consumption........................................................................................................5Figure 9. Growth Incidence Curve........................................................................................................................5Figure 10. Lorenz Curve.......................................................................................................................................5Figure 11.Targeted Government Social Assistance Received by Middle Class...................................................6Figure 12. Non-Targeted Government Assistance (Subsidy and Compensation) Received by Middle Class......6Figure 13. Other Government Assistance.............................................................................................................6Figure 14. Food Expenditure.................................................................................................................................7Figure 15. Type of Monthly Expenditure, 2024.....................................................................................................7Figure 16. Asset Ownership, 2024........................................................................................................................8Figure 17. Middle Class by Age or Generation.....................................................................................................8Figure 18. Middle Class with Above Senior High School Degree................................