外国直接投资对非洲有效吗？评估全球价值链世界中的本地溢出效应（英）

Thomas Farole and Deborah Winkler The extent to which developing countries benefit from foreign direct investment (FDI) depends on whether they are able torealize the productivity-enhancing benefits of knowledge and technology spillovers from foreign investors. To date, theexperiences in Sub-Saharan Africa have been largely disappointing. This is perhaps not surprising, bearing in mind thecomplex interplay of factors needed for spillovers to emerge. On top of the challenges of supply side capacity and the hostcountry’s policy environment, the willingness and capacity of foreign investors to support spillovers vary hugely acrosssectors and firms, and are shaped by the dynamics of the global value chains (GVCs) in which they operate. This notesummarizes the main findings from the new World Bank bookMaking Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africaand discusses the implications for policy makers hoping to harness the potential of FDI for better devel-opment outcomes.Public Disclosure Authorized Substantial research has been conducted on the exis-tence and direction of spillovers from FDI, but questionsremain, many concerning the underlying mediating fac-tors and transmission channels facilitating FDI spillovers.Moreover, there has been limited exploration of spilloversin the context of low-income countries (LICs) and in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly outside the manufacturingsector. Finally, the emergence of GVCs raises new ques-tions about spillovers in developing countries. On onehand, GVCs create opportunities by allowing developingcountries to integrate rapidly into global networks. But atthe same time, both value chain structures and supply sidebarriers may make it difficult for these spillover opportuni-ties to be realized.This note summarizes the main findings fromMaking FDI to low- and middle-income countries expanded 30-foldin the last 20 years, almost 6 times faster than in high-incomecountries and nearly 10 times faster than global gross domes-tic product (GDP). This rapid growth resulted partially fromliberalization in global trade and investment regimes and par-tially from advances in transport and communications, whichtogether allowed multinational firms to extend their marketreach and expand the scale and scope of offshoring in GVCs.For recipient countries, FDI delivers immediate invest-Public Disclosure Authorized ment, employment, and foreign exchange. However, the mostvaluable contribution that FDI can make to growth and devel-opment comes from its contribution to aggregate productivi-ty growth over the longer term. This contribution resultsfrom “spillovers”—the diffusion of knowledge, technology,and work practices from foreign investors operating near theglobal frontier to local firms and workers. Spillovers can takeplace within the same industry (intraindustry, or horizontalspillovers) or in another industry (interindustry, or verticalspillovers). In the latter case, they can affect local inputs or ser-vices suppliers in upstream sectors (backward spillovers) andlocal customers in downstream sectors (forward spillovers).Public Disclosure Authorized Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa(Faroleand Winkler 2014), which aims to address some of thesequestions through a combination of quantitative analysisand survey-based field research in eight countries (includingfive in SSA) across three sectors: agribusiness, apparel, andmining. A Conceptual Framework incentives to upgrade their technology and may also diffuseknowledge to local firms. In addition, the multinationals mayprovide higher-quality inputs to domestic customers. Compe-tition between local firms may increase and local firms maytry to imitate the multinational’s products and practices. Inaddition, knowledge embodied in labor can transmit fromforeign to local firms through labor turnover.This note summarizes the key findings of the research, Based on the existing literature and empirical evidence, figure1 outlines a conceptual framework for exploring the determi-nants of spillovers from FDI. The framework is built on anunderstanding of the mediating factors that shape the natureand extent of spillovers, specifically: (i) the spillover potentialof foreign investors; (ii) the absorptive capacity of local agents(firms and workers); (iii) and how these two factors interactwithin specific host country institutional environment andthe transmission channels. built around the three transmission channels: supply chains;labor markets; and the market forces of competition, demon-stration, and collaboration. The transmission channels through which FDI spilloverscan be generated include: (i) supply chains, (ii) labor turnover,and (iii) changing market forces. In short, multinationals tendto demand higher-quality inputs, which gives local suppliers Supply Chain Links Local sourcing is the critical channel for delivering positivespillovers.Supply chains,particularly backward links domestic firm characteristics