固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 We saw onshore selling front-end TMTs and T2s this morning. FZSZJJ27/MGMTGE 27 rose 0.9-1.3pts. NDPAPE 14 Perp/FTLNHD 27 were 0.8ptlower. VNKRLE 27-29 were down 0.5-0.8pt after Vanke announced toconvene the secondbondholders’ meeting to discuss the maturity extension Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 36576235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Chinese properties:11M25 contracted sales declined 22.2% yoy. Seebelow. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk China Economy:Uneven credit recover.CMBI expects a 50bp cut in RRRand a 10bp cut in LPR in 1Q26, followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in3Q26. See below for comments from CMBI economic research. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点  LastFriday,NTT 35/MUFG 35-36 widened 2-3bps,while SOBKCO35/SMBCAC35 tightened 2bps.TW lifers CATLIF/FUBON/NSINTW/SHIKON were 1bp tighter to 3bps wider. CFAMCI3.875 29/CFAMCI 3.37530/CFAMCI3.625 30 widened 2-4bps.See our comments andrecommendations on ChineseAMCs on11 Dec’25. MEITUA/XIAOMI were1-3bps wider. NWDEVL Perps were 0.2-1.1pts higher. Temasek backedSembcorp announced that it had entered into a share-sale agreement withChow Tai Fook Enterprises Limited and Pioneer Sail Singapore Pte Ltd toacquireAlinta Energy,an Australian gas and electricity provider forcUSD3.37bn. Media reported that Chow Tai Fook Enterprises denied rumorsof selling the Rosewood hotel brand. EHICAR 26-27/FAEACO 12.814 Perpincreased by 0.5pt. LASUDE 26 lowered by 0.2pt. In Chinese properties,FTLNHD 27 rose 1.9pts, while FUTLAN 28 was down by 1.2pts. See ourcomments on Seazenlast Friday.VNKRLE 27-29/LNGFOR 27-32 edged Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-1.07%), Dow (-0.51%) and Nasdaq (-1.69%) were lower on last Friday. 5/10/30yr UST yield washigher on last Friday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.52%/3.75%/4.19%/4.85%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 Chineseproperties:11M25contracted sales declined 22.2% yoy In Nov’25, 31 developers under our radar reported contracted sales totaled RMB135.4bn, decreased 30.4%yoy from RMB194.6bn in Nov’24.In Nov’25,only1 out of 31 developers reported yoy increase in contracted In 11M25, the cumulative contracted sales of 31 developers dropped 22.2% yoy to RMB1,570.9bn. Only 2 outof 31 developers reported yoy increase in contracted sales; CHJMAO and GRNLGR posted 21% and 6%increase in contracted sales to RMB100.7bn and RMB62.0bn, respectively. The bottom performers wereGEMDAL (RMB27.6bn), JINGRU (RMB876mn) and CIFIHG (RMB15.1bn).Their contracted sales dropped The 11M25 yoy decline in contracted sales widened to 22.2% yoy from 21.3% yoydecline in 10M25.As permedia report, China is considering additional measures to support the property market. These include providingnew homebuyers with mortgage subsidies nationwide totaled RMB400bn that to lower the mortgage interestby 1-2% for upto 3 years, raising income tax rebates for mortgage borrowers and lowering home transaction That said, we maintain our view that the recovery of the property market hinges on homebuyers’ confidencewhich, in turn, hinges on household income expectation and trend of the property price.CMBI economicresearch expects the PBOC to cut LPR by 10bp in 1Q26, followed by an additional 10bp LPR cut in 3Q26. This China Economy: Uneven credit recover Socialfinancing flows rebounded above market expectation in November largely driven by off-balance-sheetfinancing and corporate bond issuance, while government bond issuance stabilized after a sharp slowdown inOctober. Credit demand remained weak as RMB loansto the real economy continued to contract. Thehousehold sector saw the first contraction in history, reflecting ongoing stress in the property market andcautious consumption. Corporate financing improved but tilted toward short-term liquidity managementrather Social financing flows reboundeddriven by off-balance-sheet financing.Outstanding social financing (SF)growth was unchanged at 8.5% YoY in Nov, following a decline from 8.7% in September, highlighting continuedmoderation in aggregate financing. SF flow rose 6.9% YoY to RMB2.49tn, beating market expectations ofRMB2.02tn, driven mainly by stronger off-balance-sheet financing and corporate bond issuance while RMBloans remained soft. Off-balance-sheet financing was the major driver as new trust loans and new undiscountedbankers’ acceptances rose 63.7% and 827.5% to RMB84.4bn and RMB149bn, reflecting the substitution amidweakon-balance-sheet loan demand and corporates’preference for short-tenor liquidity management. New RMB loans remained weak, led by household deleveraging.Growth of outstanding RMB loans edgeddown further to 6.4% YoY in Nov, marking another record low. New RMB loan issuance dropped 32.8% toRMB390bn, below market expectations of RMB504bn. Household loans contracted RMB206bn in Nov, markingthe first contraction of household loans in history, as short-term loans contracted by RMB215.8bn