2026年担保债券展望：再平衡

Rebalancing Following the strong year-to-dateperformance, we expect coveredbonds to move broadly in line withswaps in 2026 Covered bond issuance in 2026should increase by 12.5%year-on-year to EUR160-180bn,partly driven by higher redemptions We change our covered bond sectorstance from mildly bullish to neutraland make several changes to ourcountry recommendations Disclosures & Disclaimer:This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Contents Singapore (neutral)72Slovakia (overweight from neutral)74Spain (underweight)76Sweden (neutral from overweight)78Switzerland (overweight fromneutral)80The UK (overweight from neutral)83Risks to our country views86 Covered Bond Outlook 2026:Rebalancing How much outperformancepotentialis left?3Covered bonds vs domesticsovereigns13EUR covered bond issuance15GBP covered bond issuance20USD covered bond issuance23Covered bond demand26Mortgage lending volumes arepicking up30Role of senior unsecured bank debt33ESG covered bonds35 Disclosure appendix87 Disclaimer95 Country recommendations37 Our recommendations by country37Australia (neutral)38Austria (overweight)41Belgium (neutral)44Canada (overweight from neutral)46Denmark (neutral from overweight)48Finland (neutral from overweight)50France (neutral)52Germany (overweight)54Italy (underweight from neutral)56Japan (underweight from neutral)58Korea (underweight)60Luxembourg (underweight)62The Netherlands (overweight)63New Zealand (neutral)66Norway (neutral from overweight)68Portugal (underweight)70 Executive summary Sector stance:We lower our sector stance on covered bonds from mildly bullish to neutral.Following its strong performance against swapsin 2025, we expect the iBoxx EUR coveredbond index to move broadly in line with swaps next year.Moreover, covered bond spreadsover Bunds have narrowed, leaving less room for any further outperformance againstswaps.One of the risks to our call is France. Given their large index weight and theirexpected volatility in light of the political, fiscal, and economic uncertainty in France, Frenchcovered bonds will probably be a crucial factor in the overall performance of the iBoxxcovered bond index in 2026. We have a neutral recommendation on French covered bonds,balancing the positive and negative spread drivers. ◆ ◆Covered bond supply:Primary market activity in covered bonds has been quite volatilethis year and has reached almost EUR160bn year-to-date. In light of higher redemptionvolumes and the expected increase in mortgage lending, we expect covered bond issuancein 2026 to amountto EUR160-180bn.Driven by the steep yield curves, we expect coveredbond issuers to keep focusing on tenors of up totenyears.Covered bond supply in GBPhas been strong this year and will likelyrise to GBP20-25bn in 2026, due to the sharp risein redemptions. USD issuance in 2025has been much higher thanthe admittedly low USDissuance in 2024, driven by higher redemptions. The latterwilllikelyremain an importantdriverof USD issuancein 2026. ◆Demand:Following the start of QT in March 2023, the ECB has played a considerably lessprominent role in the covered bond market than in previous years. For 2026, we expect totalnegative net CBPP3 purchases of EUR32bn (2025: EUR43bn). Bank treasuries shouldremain active buyers of covered bonds in 2026. Demand from asset managers significantlyimproved over the past two years and should account for around 30% of total demand in2025. We expect pension funds and insurers to account for up to 5-10% this year. ◆Recommendation changes:In light of the divergent year-to-date performance of thevarious covered bond countries against swaps and their future performance prospects, weupgrade our country recommendations on covered bonds from Canada, Slovakia,Switzerland, and the UK from neutral to overweight. The average covered bond spreads ofthese countries look wide,and we expect them to outperform the overall covered bondmarket over the next 6-12 months. We downgrade Nordic covered bonds from overweightto neutral as they start to look expensive following their outperformance of the iBoxx EURcovered bond index over the past two years. We also downgrade Italian and Japanesecovered bonds from neutral to underweight. The spreads levels of both countries start tolook rich after this year’s strong tightening against swaps. ◆Green, social,and sustainability covered bonds:Over the past few years, the annualsupply volumes of ESG covered bonds seems to have stabilised at slightly below theEUR20bn mark. For 2026, we forecast up to EUR20bn of ESG covered bond issuance,representing about 12-15% of the expected total EUR covered bond supply in 2026. Covered BondOutlook 2026:Rebalancing ◆Following the strong year-to-date performance, we expect coveredbonds tomovebroadly in line withswaps in 2026 ◆Covered bondissuancein 2026shouldincrease12.5%year-on-yearto EUR160-180bn, partly driven