流动秀：热辣行情

Some Like It Hot 04 December 2025 Scores on the Doors: gold 59.1%, stocks 19.6%, IG bonds 10.3%, HY bonds 10.1%,commods 6.7%, govt bonds 6.7%, cash 4.0%, bitcoin -1.8%, US$ -8.8%, oil -16.8% YTD. Investment StrategyGlobal Zeitgeist: "Trump runs it hot, oil bounces post Russia-Ukraine fix, China keeps yuancheap, soon all the commodity charts will look like gold; what LatAm stocks telling you." The Biggest Picture: commodities like it hot…GFC caused monetary excess, fiscalausterity = bonds smoked commodities in era of secular stagnation; but COVID causedfiscal excess, less monetary excess, plus end of globalization = commodities smokingbonds in 2020s era of political populism & inflationary growth (Charts 2 & 5). The Price is Right: natural resources, metals (Charts 3 & 4), LatAm stocks (up 56%YTD) all breaking out; we say long commodities the best“run it hot”trade in’26, andlong despised oil/energy without question the best“run-it-hot”contrarian trade. Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Tale of the Tape: investors bullish risk on Trump/Fed/Gen Z“puts”& tax/tariff/rate“cuts”; bond markets policing“run-it-hot”trade = biggest threat to consensus that’26upside in stocks & credit all coming in H1; but in Q4’25 Treasury vol @ new lows, US$falling again, new highs in bank stocks, all allaying liquidity/credit concerns…only thingthat can stop Santa Claus rally is“dovish”Fed cut causing a sell-off in long-end. Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com US corporate bondsvscommodities (total return) since 1998 Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should haveexperience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research Timestamp: 04 December 2025 09:44PM EST Weekly Flows: $112.3bn to cash (3rdlargest YTD), $15.4bn to bonds, $8.3bn to stocks,$2.2bn to gold, $0.9bn to crypto. Flows to Know: •HY bonds: $2.3bn inflow, largest in 16 weeks;•EM debt: $2.4bn inflow, largest in 9 weeks;•Tech: $1.1bn outflow, largest since June;•Consumer: $0.5bn inflow, largest in 3 months;•Materials: $1.6bn inflow, largest in 7 weeks;•US value: $2.4bn outflow, largest in 10 weeks;•EM active funds: $0.5bn inflow, biggest since Jun'24;•China: $3.1bn outflow, largest in 5 months (Chart 10);•UK: $0.2bn inflow, largest since April (Chart 11). BofA Private Clients: $4.3tn AUM…64.8% stocks, 17.8% bonds, 10.3% cash; biggestoutflow YTD from T-bills; in ETFs past 4 weeks, private clients buying growth, dividend,and staples vs selling low-volatility, consumer discretionary, and TIPS. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls from 6.2 to 6.0 on EM debt outflows, weaker globalstock index breadth, most bearish hedge fund positioning in oil futures in 15 years,partly offset by improving technical position of credit markets. On Bonds: bonds don’t like“run it hot”; we tactically long zero coupon bonds on comingFed cuts, Trump intervention in economy to drive CPI lower to arrest drop in approvalrating (Chart 6), and weaker labor market (US private sector job growth weakest sinceOct'20, youth unemployment up to 9.2% from 5.5% in '23); but we expect to end tacticallong in long-end before May 15th(start of term for next Fed Chair) on following… a.bond yields in Japan & China (the secular“floors”for global yields) on the rise(in Japan, to great benefit of Japanese banks–Chart 7),b.markets now pricing in a 2ndmajor central bank to hike in’26 (Australia), andc.in three months after seven nominations since 1970 (Burns, Miller, Volcker,Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell), yields up every time (2-year yield up onaverage 65bps, 10-year yield up on average 49bps–Table 1); note from Nixonnomination of Arthur "run it hot" Burns in Oct'69 to Feb'70 start of term UST10-year yield up 100bps, Dow Jones down 11% (Chart 9). On