2026年展望：喧嚣中的价值寻找

Contributors Kevin RosenbaumHead of Global CapitalMarkets Research Simon HallettHead of Climate Strategy Aaron CostelloHead of Asia Celia DallasChief Investment Strategist TJ Scavone Senior Investment Director,Capital Markets Research Sean Duffin Andrea AuerbachGlobal Head ofPrivate Investments Zach GaucherSenior Investment Director,Venture Capital Wade O’Brien Thomas O’Mahony Senior Investment Director,Capital Markets Research Managing Director,Capital Markets Research Senior Investment Director,Capital Markets Research Caryn SlotskyManaging Director,Private InvestmentStrategy Research Mark PepdjonovicManaging Director, PrivateClient Practice Brian McDonnell Max English TheresaSorrentino Hajer Head of US VentureCapital Research Global Head ofRetirement, Insurance &Government Practice Investment Director,Capital Markets Research Tiffany DiLibertoSenior Editorial ProjectManager, CapitalMarkets Research ChristinaFenton-Neblett Song HanManaging Director,Compliance Drew Boyer Justin HopferSenior InvestmentAssociate, InvestmentStrategy Office Senior InvestmentAssociate, CapitalMarkets Research Senior Director,Capital Markets Research Graham LandrithAssociate InvestmentDirector, CapitalMarkets Research Marcelo Morales Kristen Ouellet Andres Marin Mark Sintetos Senior InvestmentAssociate, CapitalMarkets Research Investment Associate,Capital Markets Research Senior Director,Capital Markets Research Editorial Project Manager,Capital Markets Research This outlook provides our perspective on the global economic environment andpresents 15 key views across asset classes for 2026. These insights aredesigned to inform strategic discussions and guide portfolio decision making.Given the diversity of investor objectives and constraints—regarding risktolerance, investment horizon, liquidity needs, currency exposure, and taxconsiderations, for example—each view should be assessed in the context ofspecific circumstances and current portfolio exposures. In an environmentwhere hype often overshadows fundamentals, investors who remain focused onvalue are best positioned to outperform. In 2026, investors should: —Embrace diversification5—Lean into AI thoughtfully7—Invest across the electricity transmission food chain9—Underweight the US dollar11—Maintain exposure to high-quality sovereigns and avoid duration bets13—Overweight global ex US equities15—Overweight developed markets small-cap equities17—Overweight Latin American equities19—Revisit private portfolio exposures amid a morphing market22—Moderate commitments to seed-focused venture capital strategies23—Lean into hedge funds25—Underweight public corporate credit27—Lean into private asset-based finance strategies29—Lean into real asset secular themes31—Overweight California Carbon Allowances33 The global economic backdrop in 2026 Our investment views are shaped by the expectation that global growth will be slightly belowtrend in 2026, consistent with the consensus forecast for global real GDP growth of 2.9%,compared to the ten-year average of 3.1%. The likelihood of upside growth surprises is low, givena softening US labor market and the lagged effect of tariffs, while the risk of a sharp recessionappears limited. We expect inflationary pressures to diverge across regions. In the United States,inflation will likely be temporarily elevated as tariffs push prices higher, especially as inventoriesare drawn down and firms pass on costs to consumers. Outside the United States, tariffs shoulddampen demand and moderate price pressures. This divergence may constrain the FederalReserve’s ability to cut rates as aggressively as markets expect, while giving other central banksgreater flexibility to adjust policy. Our economic outlook is anchored by several key drivers. First, easing global financial conditionsand reduced tariff uncertainty should support consumer and business activity worldwide. Second,increased investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, along with moderate fiscalstimulus in the United States, euro area, and potentially China, should further bolster growth.Third, offsetting these positives, a weaker US labor market, slowing economic momentum inChina, and the fading boost from tariff front-running are likely to limit upside surprises. Key risksto our outlook include a meaningful deterioration in the US labor market—though this appearsunlikely—AI enthusiasm fading, and potential reductions in US tariff rates resulting from USSupreme Court decisions. Expected rates of real economic growth and inflation in key marketsAs of November 30, 2025 • Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2026Expected rates of real economic growth and inflation in key markets As of November 30, 2025 • Bloomberg consensus estimates for 2026 Investors should embrace diversification in 2026 by Kevin Rosenbaum Many investors have seen the share of their portfolios invested in equities—both public andprivate—increase over the past decade. This s