2026年展望：在乐观情绪中寻找价值

Contents Can the wave of optimism continue?�������������4Valuation framework: Assessing valuationsignals across a spectrum of asset classes���������9 That’s the wrong question�������������������13 CIO Perspective: Expansion, innovationand resilience��������������������������23 but uneven; reinvention wins�����������������28 Introduction thedisruptive events they were forced to navigate�Extreme volatility was all too often the prevailing backdrop;the‘Liberation Day’tariffs crash,ongoing geopoliticalwhere there is an unmistakable feeling of nervousness givenrecent performance�However, while elevated, most equitymarkets are not presently at extreme or unprecedented levels�Within private markets, a favoured destination for year, but investor focus is now clearly on the year ahead�We believe many of last year’s drivers will remain primarycatalystsfor 2026�Markets are perhaps moving moreintoa‘show-me’mode regarding AI-led productivityassumptions embedded in some equity valuations�There isa clear expectation of further rate cuts in the US, but this isThe CIOs from our Equities, Fixed Income and Private Marketteams discuss all these issues in this year-end edition ofInvestment Perspectives�Their conclusion? Now more thanever selectivity will be key to securing investment successin 2026�Pockets of opportunity always exist across assetclasses for investors prepared to focus on the fundamentals Can the wave of optimism continue?Tristan Hanson, Key takeawaysMostmajor asset classes performed well in 2025, despite repeated shocks�As we approach 2026, investorconcerns have grown about elevated valuations, creditquality and sovereign debt levels� Co-Manager, M&G Episode Macro Strategy intelligence (AI)-focused companies are profitable andshowing strong growth�However, there is scope fordisappointment if some of the planned expenditure on 2026; anticipated US rate cuts may be challenged ifinflation remains above target, impacting both bondsand equities� rather than on predictions� At the time of writing, most of the major asset classes havedelivered very strong investment returns, with many stockmarkets reaching record highs�of unease has grown among investors�Elevated equityvaluations, abrupt volatility in precious metal prices andworries over credit quality have been added to a list of ffff not least Liberation Day in April�Some of the outcomes aresurprising�Among equity markets, South Korea’s c�70% risestands out, especially as the market narrative at the start ofthe year was focused on US exceptionalism�The S&P 500Index rose but lagged many other markets, including thesovereign debt levels�So what are we to make of the current investment backdrop?With the caveat that we can’t predict the future, what arethe key issues that investors need to think about in 2026? ffff Valuations – boom or bubble?One of the big questions investors are asking is whether worrying about the risk of loss�This suggests a degreeof complacency�companies to make money from AI, there is scope fordisappointment if some of the planned expenditure proves valuations have become too elevated�The S&P 500 Index iscurrently trading on a 12-month forward price-to-earningsratio of around 23, significantly above its long-term averageThis time is different Today’s situation is often compared to the 1999/2000 of 16 times1�There are also concerns about valuations in the signal a bubble, they could mean potentially lower futurereturns�There is also less compensation for risk if things donot turn out as expected� dotcom bubble�My investment career started at the veryend of the 1990s�At the time, it felt like a gold rush forinternet stocks, most of which were deeply unprofitable�In that sense, today’s environment is definitely different: theIn 2025, the best performing markets proved to be the ones that had low expectations at the start of the year�In 2026,could we see a similar pattern as investors seek to diversifybeyond expensive AI stocks and consider more attractivelyvalued stocks in the rest of the market or even look for value bubble, inflated by soaring prices of AI-related technologyand semiconductor stocks� of optimism reflected in market prices and look for signsof emotionally driven behaviour: do we see fear of pricedeclines or fear of missing out (FOMO)? ahead, although as time passes investors will focus onwhether such spending is generating a sufficient returnon investment� Central banks back in focusAI has dominated investment discussions lately, but central Debt and deficitsThe appointment of a new Fed chair next year could also mindful of risk in government bonds�However, given thatthe real (inflation-adjusted) yields available on long-datedgovernment bonds are more attractive than they have been bank policy is likely to become more important in 2026�Where inflation goes in the coming months will likely playa pivotal role for investment portfolios�influence the direction of interest rates�President Trumphas repeat