2026年投资展望：在乐观情绪中寻找价值

Investment Perspectives2026 Outlook: Searchingfor value amid the euphoriaDecember 2025 Contents Introduction����������������������������3Can the wave of optimism continue?�������������4Valuation framework: Assessing valuationsignals across a spectrum of asset classes���������9CIO Perspective: Are we in an AI bubble?That’s the wrong question�������������������13CIO Perspective: Income is back���������������18CIO Perspective: Expansion, innovationand resilience��������������������������23Recovery underwaybut uneven; reinvention wins�����������������28 Introduction where there is an unmistakable feeling of nervousness givenrecent performance�However, while elevated, most equitymarkets are not presently at extreme or unprecedentedlevels�Within private markets, a favoured destination forinvestors in recent years, the factors driving support are nottransitory, but multi-year and enduring�The CIOs from our Equities, Fixed Income and Private Market thedisruptive events they were forced to navigate�Extreme volatility was all too often the prevailing backdrop;the‘Liberation Day’tariffs crash,ongoing geopoliticalconflict,a US credit rating downgrade and increasingquestions about AI-led market momentum�Mostasset classes delivered stellar performance this year, but investor focus is now clearly on the year ahead�We believe many of last year’s drivers will remain primarycatalystsfor 2026�Markets are perhaps moving moreintoa‘show-me’mode regarding AI-led productivityassumptions embedded in some equity valuations�There isa clear expectation of further rate cuts in the US, but this isnot inevitable with inflation remaining sticky�And who knowsif and when the conflict in Ukraine will eventually come toa conclusion�Clarity on all these factors will undoubtedlyimpact markets over the next 12 months�teams discuss all these issues in this year-end edition ofInvestment Perspectives�Their conclusion? Now more thanever selectivity will be key to securing investment successin 2026�Pockets of opportunity always exist across assetclasses for investors prepared to focus on the fundamentalsrather than ride market momentum� Can the wave of optimism continue?Tristan Hanson, Key takeawaysMostmajor asset classes performed well in 2025, despite repeated shocks�As we approach 2026, investorconcerns have grown about elevated valuations, creditquality and sovereign debt levels�Unlike the 1999/2000 dotcom bubble, today’s artificial Co-Manager, M&G Episode Macro Strategy intelligence (AI)-focused companies are profitable andshowing strong growth�However, there is scope fordisappointment if some of the planned expenditure onAI proves excessive or somewhat cyclical�Centralbank policy and inflation will be pivotal in2026; anticipated US rate cuts may be challenged if inflation remains above target, impacting both bondsand equities�There will be unforeseen events in the year ahead andsuccess will depend on how investors react to surprises, rather than on predictions�4 of unease has grown among investors�Elevated equityvaluations, abrupt volatility in precious metal prices andworries over credit quality have been added to a list ofexisting concerns that included policy unpredictability andsovereign debt levels�So what are we to make of the current investment backdrop?ffffffffffff At the time of writing, most of the major asset classes havedelivered very strong investment returns, with many stockmarkets reaching record highs�Marketshave been resilient through repeated shocks, not least Liberation Day in April�Some of the outcomes aresurprising�Among equity markets, South Korea’s c�70% risestands out, especially as the market narrative at the start ofthe year was focused on US exceptionalism�The S&P 500Index rose but lagged many other markets, including theUK, Japan and emerging markets�With the caveat that we can’t predict the future, what arethe key issues that investors need to think about in 2026? ffff Valuations – boom or bubble?One of the big questions investors are asking is whether companies to make money from AI, there is scope fordisappointment if some of the planned expenditure provesexcessive or somewhat cyclical�Although elevated asset price valuations do not necessarily worrying about the risk of loss�This suggests a degreeof complacency�This time is different valuations have become too elevated�The S&P 500 Index iscurrently trading on a 12-month forward price-to-earningsratio of around 23, significantly above its long-term averageof 16 times1�There are also concerns about valuations in thebond market, where credit spreads have narrowed near totheir lowest levels in 20 years²�In particular, there are concerns that we might be in an AIToday’s situation is often compared to the 1999/2000dotcom bubble�My investment career started at the veryend of the 1990s�At the time, it felt like a gold rush forinternet stocks, most of which were deeply unprofitable�In that sense, today’s environment is definitely different: the signa