印度尼西亚乳制品年度报告

Date:November 21, 2025 Report Number:ID2025-0044 Report Name:Dairy and Products Annual Country:Indonesia Post:Jakarta Report Category:Dairyand Products Prepared By:Carolus Darmawan Approved By:Lisa Ahramjian Report Highlights: Indonesia’s milk production increased to 722,883 metric tons in 2025, with record production projectedfor 2026, due to partial recovery fromthe 2023 Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak combined withsignificant cattle imports and improved management in modern dairy farms. This growth createsopportunities for U.S. live cattle, genetics, and feed ingredients. However, reduced middle classpurchasing power and milk being optional in the Free Nutritious Meals Program resulted in consumptionof milk products growing at a lower rate than expected in 2025. Meanwhile, imports of skim milkpowder, whey, and lactose reduced significantly, replaced by increased imports of full-fat milk andwhole milk powder, and increased availability of local milk. These substitutions significantly reducedU.S. skim milk powder, whey, and lactose exports, which remain subject to the 5 percent duty and faceincreased price competition. Meanwhile, U.S. cheese exports to Indonesia increased by 34 percent fromJanuary to August 2025. Production Almost 70 percent of Indonesia’s fresh milk is produced by smallholder dairy farmers, who are membersof 63 well-organized dairy cooperatives under the Indonesian Dairy Cooperatives Union (GKSI).Several modern large and mid-sized dairy farms produce the remaining 30 percent. Better managementof dairy production at the farm level, including improved nutrition and increased biosecurity measuresfollowing the recent Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak, has resulted in an increase of Indonesia’sfresh milk production. In 2024, dairy cooperative members suffered a decrease of 9.7 percent of their dairy cattle populationdue to the prolonged FMD outbreak effect, which caused the loss of approximately 63,000 MT of annualmilk production since it was introduced in 2023. GKSI reported that their members produced 445,173MT of milk in 2024, which reflects a 31.5 percent decrease from 2022 (pre-FMD) production levels.Conversely, in 2024, modern large and mid-sized dairy farms were much less impacted by FMD andexpanded their herd size and milk productionin alignment with President Prabowo’sgoalto increaseIndonesia’s milk production. Compared with 2023 production,their milk production increased 20percent in 2024 to reach 196,845 MT. This was higher than Post’s previous projection and a record high,partly due to a larger-than-expected expansion of their dairy herd populations through the importation ofmore than 2,200 dairy cows and improved herd management. However, the total 2024 fresh milkproduction of 642,018 MT still reflected a 4.4 percent decrease compared to 2023. Domesticallyproduced fresh milk is processed by local dairy processors, mainly into shelf-stable whole milk powder(WMP), which is then later reconstituted to produce their branded dairy products. In 2025, GKSI projects that its members will produce more than 486,000 MT of fresh milk, whichwould reflect a partial recovery of pre-FMD production levels. Post projects the annual fresh milkproduction of modern and mid-sized dairy farms will increase to almost 237,000 MT in 2025 due tocontinued dairy herd population and yield increases, resulting in a 2025 forecast for fresh milkproduction of 722,883 MT. Decreased impacts of FMD and an increase in domestic milk production due to the population increaseof the country’s dairy cows are expected to influence a continued upward trendin fresh milk production.Through a campaign to increase the country’s dairy cow population, the Government of Indonesia (GOI)received commitments from 193 companies to import 48,754 dairy cows in 2025. More than 4,000 dairycows have arrived in Indonesiafrom Australia as of August 2025, with 30 percent going to dairycooperatives in partnership with the importing companies and 70 percent going to modern dairies. InSeptember 2025, Indonesia and the United States finalized the breeding cattle import protocol whichwill allow the United States to export dairy cows to Indonesia once final regulatory procedures arecomplete. In additiontoAustralia’s long-standing dairy cattle exports to Indonesia, the Ministry ofAgriculture (MOA) recently granted market access for Mexican and Brazilian cattle. While MOA issued import recommendations for more than 8,000 dairy cows, only half have arrived inIndonesia to date. MOA indicated that the competition in procurement withcountries in themiddle eastand transportation with beef cattle have hindered the shipment of dairy cows from Australia toIndonesia. Recognizing that Indonesia’s dairy herd and overall milk production is increasing due to bothcattle imports and improved herd management, Post projects Indonesia’s 2026 fresh milk productionwill increase at the same rate as it did from 2024–2025, i.e.,by12.6 percent. Herd manage