菲律宾乳制品年度报告

Date:November 25, 2025 Report Number:RP2025-0052 Report Name:Dairy and Products Annual Country:Philippines Post:Manila Report Category:Dairyand Products Prepared By:Florence Mojica-Sevilla Approved By:Herpin Rochet Jateng Report Highlights: Post forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 1.5 percent to 3.5 million metric tons (MT) inliquid milk equivalent (LME)in 2026. The Philippine imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, asdomestic production cannot meet demand. Post forecasts minimal growth in skim milk imports at 1percent to 175,000 MT, while fluid milk imports remain flat at 130,000 MT in 2026. Cheese importswill continue to increase by 9 percent despite high prices due to increasing demand from pizza chains,restaurants and hotels. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Philippines produces 1 percent of its demand for dairy products, which leads the country to import99 percent of its requirements. The Philippines’ annual per capita consumption of 27 kilograms (kg) isbelow consumption in the United States (295 kg per capita) showing there remains ample opportunitiesfor food manufacturers to offer more dairy products in the Philippines. Fluid Milk or Ready-to-Drink Milk (RTD Milk).Post forecastsproduction to increase to 37,000 MTin 2026, boosted by an increase in the dairy herd and the active implementation of the government’sdairydevelopment projects.Despite production improvements, the Philippines supplies only 20 percentof its total annual RTD requirement, with the rest imported equating to about one glass out of fiveglasses of liquid milk consumed.The Philippine average milkproduction is 10 liters (li)/day for dairycows, 4.5 li/day for buffalo, and 1.5 li/day for goats. Production remains low mainly due to poor feedingand managementpractices resulting from high production costs and inadequate infrastructure. Demand forliquid RTD milk will show minimal growth of 1 percent in 2026. Growth will come fromthe expansion of the Milk Feeding Program, and consumption of coffee and milk tea due to theexpanding food service sector.Demand is supported by imported ultra-heat treated (UHT) milk. Postforecasts for imports to remain flat at 130,000 MT in 2026 due to expected improvement in thelocalsupply of liquid RTD Milk. Cheese.Local production remains minimal. Post forecasts increasing cheese demand despite higherprices tosupplyfast-food, pizza chains, hotels and restaurants, which are the drivers of demand forcheese. Postforecasts a9percent increase in imports in 2026, attributed to increasing local demandamong hotels, food chains and restaurants. Skim Milk Powder(SMP).Post forecasts consumption to increase to 175,000 MT in 2026, up by1percent from 2025. Inflation is declining, which will encourage consumption as prices go down. Agrowth of 2 percent in SMP imports is also expected as consumption continue to grow. An expecteddecline in import prices will encourage manufacturers to produce more packaged dairy products to servethe increasing demand. Whole Milk Powder(WMP).Post forecasts for consumption to remain flat in 2026 at 20,000 MT,coming from a rebound in 2025. Declining prices in some months will encourage consumers to switch toWMP consumption. Post sees imports to remain flat in 2026 at 20,000 MT in consideration of theexpected double-digit growth of 18 percent in 2025. Imports from January to September 2025 grew 8percent from the same period the previous year. The United States and New Zealand remain the major suppliers of dairy products to the Philippines.Dairy manufacturers maintain up to three months of raw material stocks. Placement oforders fromexporting countries are done in advance in consideration of the transit time. Consumption FAS Manila forecasts consumption to reach 3.5 million metric tons(MMT) in liquid milk equivalent(LME) in 2026, a growth of 1.5 percent from 2025, with the vast majority coming from imports. Growthis attributed to the expanding middle class and a growing population. The Philippine population isprojected to be about121.9 million in 2026, growing 1.5 percent annually. The country’s gross domesticproduct (GDP) is expected togrow by about5.9 percentin 2026.Post sees these combined factorsleading to greater dairy consumption. Rising consumption is also supported by infrastructureinvestments, particularly in cold chain facilities, supermarkets, and display areas. Middle class households spend a higher percentage of their income on dairy products. According toPhilippines Statistics Authority (PSA) surveys, as incomes grow among the middle class, spending canincrease up to 9 times for milk and dairy products. SeeDairy and Products Annual 2022. Inflation declined to 1.7 percent in October 2025, down from 2.3 percent in October 2024. Lowerinflation supports increaseinconsumption of food products including dairy. The national averageinflation from January to October 2025 was 1.7 percent. Milk, other dairy products and eggs postedlower indices at 1.6 percent in October