中国乳制品年度报告

Date:November 21, 2025 Report Number:CH2025-0218 Report Name:Dairy and Products Annual Country:China-People's Republic of Post:Beijing Report Category:Dairy and Products Prepared By:FAS China Staff and Jadon Marianetti Approved By:Eric Mullis Report Highlights: China's dairy market is currently saturated with excess fluid milk, drivingfarmgate prices downsince mid-2022. While overall milk output is forecast to slightly decline in 2025 as smaller farmsexit the market, large processors are investing in cheese, butter, and functional powders tocapture higher-value segments. Post expectsdemand from the feed and infant-formula sectorswill keep whey imports firm in 2026, while broader adoption of cheese and butter in restaurants,bakeries, and tea/coffee chains in lower-tier cities will sustain modest import growth. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The forecasts and revised estimates provided in this report are issued by FAS China and are notofficial USDA data. FAS China provides thisreporting andanalysis as a service toU.S.farmers, ranchers, ruralcommunities, and agribusinessesin support of a worldwide agricultural information system and alevel playing field for U.S. agriculture. Fluid Milk:Post forecasts production to remain broadly stable in 2026 with imports decliningslightly. Domestic production is sufficient forUHT demand, and pasteurized milk remainslocally sourced. Whole Milk Powder (WMP):Post forecasts WMP production to decline slightly in 2026 asmanufacturers shift to higher-margin products. Reduced use in UHT-reconstitution due to theamended sterilized-milk standard will drive consumption modestly lower. Post forecasts importsto remain stable, primarily serving specification-driven formula and other processing needs. Skim Milk Powder (SMP):Post forecasts a slight increase in SMP production in 2026 on betterbutter-plus-skim economics and modest expansion of milkfat programs. Specification-driveninfant formula demand will push up consumption. Post forecasts for imports to remain broadlystable. Cheese:Post expects production to rise gradually as new capacity comes online. Foodserviceexpansion and wider adoptionin restaurants, bakeries, and tea/coffee chainswilldrive modestlyhigher cheese consumption in 2026, with imports slightlyincreasing. Butter:Post forecasts butter production to increase slightly in 2026 onimproved milkfat returnsand steadier foodservice programs. Restaurant and bakery channels expanding into lower-tiercities will help fuel a modest rise in consumption.Post forecasts imports to increase slightly. Whey and Whey Products:Post expects whey imports to remain strong in 2026 on stable feed-grade demand for piglet and nursery diets and ongoing food uses, notably infant formula.UTIVE SUMMARY FLUID MILK PRODUCTION Post forecasts that China’s fluid milk production will remain stable in 2026. Milk prices havedeclined continuously since2022(see Chart 1), leaving many farms unprofitable, particularlysmaller independent operations.Sources indicate most small-scale farms with fewer than 1,000head have exited the market orhave been acquired by larger operators through consolidation.Such consolidation typically transfers cattle rather than liquidating them and therefore does notdirectly reduce total inventories,leaving limited room for further reductions in 2026. Theremaining large farms, many of which are financially supported by vertically integrateddairyprocessors, are expected to maintain stable herd sizesdespiteweak prices. Industry data indicatethat farms with over 1,000 heads now account for more than 68 percent of productionin 2025,upmore than2percentfrom a year earlier,underscoring the reliance oflarge-scale operations. Government support remains an important stabilizing factor. Programs such as targeted subsidies,technical demonstrations, and grassland conservation payments continue to provide incentivesfor production.Despitegovernment support and stabilization among large-scale farms, thenational dairy herd will likely decline further in 2026, though at a slower rate than in recent years.While small farms continue to exit,ongoing improvements in per-cow yields will offset herdcontraction, keeping milk outputsteady. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)reported thatChina’s total cattle herd stood at 100.5million head at the end of 2024, down 4.4 percent year-on-year. By the end of the second quarterof 2025, inventories fell further to 99.9 million head,a 2.1 percent year-on-year decline, showinga moderatecontraction.Although the national cattle herd may continue to contract, regionaltrends vary significantly. In the first half of 2025,traditional production hubs such as Hebeiposted slight declinesdue to tighter environmental regulations and reduced smallholderparticipation, while emerging regions such as Gansu registered rapid expansion, partiallyoffsetting declines elsewhere. In the longer term, restrictions on imported dairy genetics,stemming from the suspension offrozen semen im