固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The new WESCHI 28 was down 0.8pt this morning. There were buyers forChineseAMC Perps and TW lifers,while sellers on SEA namesMAYMK/AHBMK/RILIN.We saw dip buying on JP names NOMURAPerps/SUMILFs. GRNCH 28 was 0.3pt lower. VLLPM 29/KNMIDI 26 rose Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 3657 6235glennko@cmbi.com.hk ORIEAS:FV of the new ORIEAS 28 to be T+85bps vs IPT at T+140bps.See below. Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk VNKRLE:Thoughts on rumors of debt restructuring.VNKRLE 27-29dropped 3.8-4.2pts. See below. Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,the Asia IG flows skewed towards better selling in 5-10yr Koreacorps HANMIL/LGENSO/HYNMTR/HYUELE, HK banks DAHSIN/BNKEA/SHCMBK T2s,Chinese AMC GRWALL/CCAMCL Perps,and BBLTBs.These names were unchanged to 2-3bps wider. On the other hand, we sawbetter buying on 2-3yr senior financial papers and FRNs for lower-risk playstowardsend of year, such as AMs picking up names like CHILOV with ashorter duration. LASUDE 26 gained 2.1pts after the headlines that Lai Sun Development would sell 50% stake in CCB Tower in HK with net proceeds ofHKD2bn(cUSD257mn).The NWDEVL complex were 0.2-1.4pts lower.WESCHI 26 was 0.2pt higher. See our FV estimateof the new WESCHI 28yesterday.In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29 plunged 8.2-11.6pts afterthe rumors on debt restructuring next year. See our comments below.GRNCH 28 was 1.0pt lower. LNGFOR 28-32 lowered by 0.4-1.4pts. However, In LGFV space, HFs continued to buy higher-yielding issues down the creditcurve, while RM clients continued to look for onshore AAA-guaranteed issues.We also saw further recovery in demand for papers yielding in between the Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (+0.91%), Dow (+1.43%) and Nasdaq (+0.67%) were higher on Tuesday. US Sep’25 PPI was+0.3% mom, in line with market expectation. US Sep’25retail sales was +0.2% mom, lower than the marketexpectation of +0.4%. UST yield was lower on Tuesday. 2/5/10/30 year yield was at 3.43%/3.55%/4.01%/4.67%. Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 ORIEAS: FV of the new ORIEAS 28 to be T+85bps vs IPT at T+140bps China Orient AMC proposes to issue 3yr senior unsecured Reg S USD bond. We view the FV of the newORIEAS 28 to be T+85bps vs IPT at T+140bps, in view of the valuation of its own ORIEAS 27 (T+82bps/YTM4.3%) and ORIEAS 29 (T+90bps/YTM 4.5%). The new ORIEAS28 should also trade above CCAMCL 4.37528 (T+79bps/YTM 4.3%) to reflect China Orient AMC’s weaker credit profile and credit rating compared to that The proceeds will be used to repay its offshore debts. The new ORIEAS 28 will be issued by China OrientAMC’s offshore subsidiary Joy Treasure Assets Holdings, and guaranteed by China Orient Asset Management China Orient AMC is one of the big four AMCs in China. It is 100% owned by the Chinese government throughChina Investment Corporation (CIC), after MoF transferred all of its stake to Central Huijin under CIC in 2025.China Orient AMC manages distressed assets, and has businesses across insurance, banking, securities, trustand others. COAMI is China Orient AMC’s only offshore operating platform. As of Dec’24, COAMI had totalassets of HKD80.4bn, generated total revenue of HKD1.8bn and net profit of HKD117mn in FY24. Last week, VNKRLE:Thoughts on rumors of debt restructuring VNKRLEs moved 8.2-11.6pts lower yesterday and 3.8-4.2pts lower this morning on themarket rumors onVanke to launch debt restructuring by latest 1Q26.While we cannot confirm whether the talks on debtrestructuring or the timing of any restructuring are true, we would not be surprised if Vanke is considering or in Our initial thoughts are an outright and holistic restructuring across the board is unlikely after SZ Metro hasoffered shareholder’s loan of cRMB30bn, at least cRMB13bn on unsecured basis as per our estimates. As we wrote on3 Nov’25, SZ Metro may be more reluctant to provide direct financial support to Vanke, but we seethe strong incentive for SZ Metro to ensure Vanke’s financial viability. We believe that debt restructuring, if any,will focus more on lengthening maturity profile and cutting interest expenses of Vanke’s bank loans which Additionally,we believe that maturity profile of Vanke’s public bonds is more manageable after earlyredemptions and repayments of public bonds totaled RMB31.1bn YTD. The total public bonds due or subjectto redemption are RMB5.7bn and RMB12.4bn for the rest of 2025 and 2026, respectively. As discussed before,the unencumbered IPs offer Vanke financial flexibility to refinance the repayments and redemptions of publicbonds going forward.We estimate the headroom for secured financing from its unencumbered IPs to becRMB36bn assuming a LTV of 50%.Currently, the total o/s onshore and offshore bonds of Vanke is News and market color Regardingonshore primary issuances, there were 65 credit bonds issued yesterday with an amount ofRMB55bn. As for mo