业绩及指引强劲超预期，扭转AI泡沫论

点评： ➢3Q26业绩及4Q26指引均超买方预期，上调目标价至$235：公司Oct-Q营收$57bn（环比+22%/同比+62%），买方预期$55-56bn（此前指引$54bn），实现环比$10bn的历史新高季度增幅。毛利率73.6%，预期73.5%。EPS $1.3，预期$1.26。本季营收中，数据中心收入占$51.2bn（环比+18%），其中计算业务占$43bn受GB300量产出货驱动；网络业务营收占$8.2bn，成为世界上最大的网络业务供应商。4Q26指引营收$65bn，超买方预期$64bn。毛利率指引75%，预期74%。尽管面临存储（HBM）等组件成本上升的压力，公司正在努力将明年的毛利率维持在70%中段。我们预计CY26/27年营收为$337/411bn，EPS为$7.8/9.5，对应目标价$235基于30x远期PE。 ➢AI泡沫不攻自破：黄仁勋指出，加速计算和生成式AI优化现有业务不仅能降低成本（应对摩尔定律失效），还能提升收入（如更精准的推荐系统），因此这些数千亿美元的投资是“完全由现金流资助的”。云厂的产能已经售罄，且英伟达的GPU（包括Blackwell、Hopper甚至6年前的Ampere）目前都处于满负荷运行状态，之前关于云厂错误拉长折旧年限从3年到6年的言论不攻自破。另外昨天发布的Gemini 3Pro的强大功能表现也是由进一步提升Pre-training和Post-training，证明训练的scaling并没有触顶，利好AI芯片需求。另外在美国电力短缺的背景下，英伟达GPU是最具能效比的芯片选择，利空AMD。 ➢5000亿美金订单有更大空间：CFO明确表示5000亿仅是目前的预测，实际数字还会增长，比如刚宣布和沙特阿拉伯未来3年出货40-60万颗GPU，和Anthropic合作部署1GW的GPU。 ➢产品组合和路线图：GB300的需求和出货量已经超过了GB200。在Q3的Blackwell总收入中，GB300贡献了大约三分之二。Rubin按计划将在2H26开始爬坡，目前已经从台积电流片回来进展非常顺利。 ➢库存：资产负债表上的供应承诺（Supply commitments）环比增长了63%，库存环比增长了32%。 ➢中国收入：Q3来自中国H20产品销售额仅为5000万美元，Q4指引中未假设任何来自中国数据中心收入。 风险： AI需求低于预期；供应链及地缘政治风险；竞争加剧 分析师介绍 分析师赵方舟，香港大学工商管理学学士（会计与金融）毕业，主要覆盖海外硬科技行业，包括AI GPU/ASIC及AI互联。 该分析师2022-2025年曾任职于海通国际研究部，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖海外硬科技行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 邮箱:eugene.zhao@gpf.com.hk电话:(852)6082 5609; (86) 178 9848 1530 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within suchjurisdiction.