固定收益每日市场更新

CMBI Credit Commentary Fixed Income Daily Market Update固定收益部市场日报 The new HKMTGC 3.875 30 was roughly unchanged from offering atT+20bps this morning. Asia IG space was 2bps tighter to 2bps wider overall.We sawrecovery in KR names like LGENSO, but better selling on BBLTB28s/33s amid BBLTB’s new issues. There was better buying on higher- Glenn Ko, CFA高志和(852) 36576235glennko@cmbi.com.hk Cyrena Ng, CPA吳蒨瑩(852) 3900 0801cyrenang@cmbi.com.hk BBLTB:FV of the new BBLTB 30sand BBLTB 35s to be T+80-85bps andT+95-100bps, respectively. See below. BTSDF:On track to achieve FY25 revised revenue target based on 9M25run-rate.We change to neutral on BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 and switch toFOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 for better carry. We view the conviction level of BTSDF28is now lower after moving up c5pts since our initiation of buy Yujing Zhang张钰婧(852)3900 0830zhangyujing@cmbi.com.hk Trading desk comments交易台市场观点 Yesterday,MEITUA curve and TW lifer NSINTW/FUBON widened by 2-5bpsamid selling flows. We saw two-way flows skewed towards better selling onCCAMCL Perp, and block two-way trading on CDBFLC 35. Chinese andglobal funds were selling HK bank SHCMBK/DAHSIN/BNKEA/NANYAN T2s.The NWDEVL complex rose 1.4-2.9pts. NWD announced early results of itsexchange offers for its bonds and perps and increased cap of the offers.BTSDF 9.125 07/24/28 was 0.1pt lower. See comments on H&H’s 3Q25financial results below. In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27-29 were down by0.4-1.0pt. FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26-27 were 0.1pt lower. Japanese/KoreanIG spaces were upto 5bps wider on financial TYANLI/DAESEC/NHSECSand NOMURA T2s, as well as corporate NTT/LGENSO/PKX. However, flows The LGFV space stayed afloat. Higher-yielding issues continued to grindtighter on back ofHF demand, whilst flows across the remaining of the spacewere overall two-way skewed towards better buying from RMs, especially for Last Trading Day’s Top Movers Marco News Recap宏观新闻回顾 Macro–S&P (-0.83%), Dow (-1.07%) and Nasdaq (-1.21%) were lower on Tuesday. The latest initial joblessclaims was +232k, higher than the market expectation of +223k. UST yield was lower on Tuesday.2/5/10/30 Desk Analyst Comments分析员市场观点 BBLTB:FV of the new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s to be T+80-85bps and T+95-100bps, respectively Bangkok Bank propose to issue 5yr and 10yr Reg S/144A senior unsecured USD bonds. We view the FV ofthe new BBLTB 30s and BBLTB 35s to be T+80-85bps and T+95-100bps, respectively, vs IPTat T+115bpsand T+130bps in view of its BBLTB curve that BBLTB 33-34 are trading at T+81bps with YTM of 4.9%. Bangkok Bank is the largestbank in Thailand by total assets as of Sep’25 with presence in 14 internationalmarkets. We view its loan book is more diversified than its local peers geographically, its international loanaccounted for 23% of its total loan book and that is higher thanits peers KBANK (5%) and KTBTB (2%). Bangkok Bank’s 9M25 results show resilient profitability, stable asset quality and strongcapital adequacy. In9M25, NIM declined to 2.81% from 3.05% in 9M24, consistent with the lower rate environment. The BOT policyrate dropped to 1.5-2% during 9M25 compared to 2.5% in 9M24. The cost-to-income ratio fell to 44.7% from46.3% over the same period on disciplined cost management.Bangkok Bank’s profitability improved despitethe margin pressure,with ROA/ROE increased to 1.12%/8.99% in 9M25 from 1.03%/8.54% in 9M24, Weview Bangkok Bank’s asset quality stabilize in 3Q25 amid softened tourism and trade-policy uncertainty,with the 3Q25 credit costs down to c1.5% from c1.6% in 2Q25 as per our estimate. Bangkok Bank’s gross NPLratio rose to 3.3% as of Sep’25 from 3.2% asof Jun’25, mainly due to shrink in size of the loan book. During3Q25, non-performing loan declined to THB103bn as of Sep’25 from THB106bn as of Jun’25. NPL coverageratio at 294% as of Sep’25 was at a high level compared to regional peers, albeit lower than that of 334% as of Dec’24. We take comfort in Bangkok Bank’s comparatively diversified loan book by geography and by industrycompared to its local peers, which should mitigate concentration risk. Moreover, Bangkok Bank’s capital buffers remain ample with standalone CET1 ratio at 19.6% as of Sep’25,well above the 8.0% regulatory minimum requirement. During 3Q25, Bangkok Bank redeemed USD750mn AT1,the net reduction on the CAR was mitigated by USD1bn T2 bonds issued in Mar’25. The USD T2 bondsissuance also demonstrated its diverse funding access offshore on top of onshore. Bangkok Bank’s capital BTSDF:On track to achieve FY25 revised revenue target based on 9M25 run-rate We view H&H credit profile is improving, supported by active liability management and IMF recovery, and thebond continues to offer good carry in Chinese HY space. That said, we view the conviction level of BTSDF9.125 07/24/28 (Ba3/BB/-) is now lower after moving up c5pts since our initiation of buy recommendation inJan’25, and compared to its peer FOSUNI 8.5 05/19/28 (-/BB-/-). Therefore, we change to neutral on BTSD