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人工智能的全球影响：注意差距

2025-04-08国际货币基金组织刘***

AI智能总结

本文探讨了人工智能 (AI) 对全球经济的不均衡影响，强调其影响将取决于 (i) 各国行业对 AI 的暴露程度，(ii) 各国整合这些技术到其经济的准备情况，以及 (iii) 各国获得基本数据和技术的途径。通过将这些方面输入全球多部门动态一般均衡模型，文章表明 AI 将加剧国家间收入不平等，不公平地使发达经济体受益。事实上，发达经济体的估计增长影响可能是低收入国家的两倍多。虽然 AI 准备情况和获取能力的改善可以缓解这些差距，但它们不太可能完全抵消它们。此外，AI 驱动的生产率增长可能会减少汇率调整的传统作用，因为 AI 对非贸易部门的影响很大——这是一种类似于反向 Balassa-Samuelson 效应的机制。在基准情景下，全球 GDP 将在未来十年内增长近 4%（高 TFP 增长情景）或 1.3%（低 TFP 增长情景），潜在 TFP 增长率为 0.8-2.4%。然而，这些收益分布不均，发达经济体受益不成比例——这反映了它们更强的 AI 准备情况和暴露程度，以及他们对高科技基础设施和数据的更大获取能力。美国脱颖而出，在高低 TFP 增长情景下，预计产出增幅分别达到 5.6% 和 1.9%。欧元区和其他发达经济体也实现了显著增长，这得益于它们相对较高的 AI 暴露程度和准备情况。中国在中等增长结果中排名靠前，这得益于高 AI 准备情况，但由于与发达经济体相比，制造业相对于服务业的重要性较低，因此暴露程度相对较低。在“有限 AI 访问”情景中，新兴市场和低收入国家面临 AI 技术获取限制，导致这些国家与全球平均水平的差距扩大。在“增强 AI 准备情况”情景中，即使政策干预可以缩小差距，但不太可能完全消除 AI 采用的不平衡跨国影响。其他关键国际宏观经济变量，如汇率和经常账户，表现出不太明显的行为。人工智能驱动的生产率冲击，特别是在非贸易部门，可能会导致发达经济体的货币相对于新兴市场和低收入国家贬值，因为非贸易价格面临下行压力。

Strategy Policy and Review, and Research Department The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap Prepared byEugenio Cerutti,Antonio GarciaPascual,Yosuke Kido, Longji Li, Giovanni Melina,Marina M. Tavares,andPhilippe Wingender* Authorized for distribution by Kenneth H Kang and Antonio Spilimbergo IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the uneven global impact of AI, highlighting how its effects will be a functionof (i) countries’ sectoral exposure to AI, (ii) their preparedness to integrate these technologies into theireconomies, and (iii) their access to essential data and technologies. We feed these three aspects into a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of the global economy and show that AI will exacerbate cross-country income inequality, disproportionately benefiting advanced economies. Indeed, the estimated growth RECOMMENDED CITATION:Cerutti, E., A. Garcia Pascual, Y. Kido, L. Li, G. Melina, M. M. Tavares and P.Wingender “The Global Impact of AI: Mind the Gap” IMF Working Paper No. 25/76, April 2025. *The authors would like to thankAbdullah AlHassan, Botir Baltabaev,Benjamin Carton,Gabriela Conde, Era Dabla-Norris,Florence Jaumotte, KennethHKang,Kristina Kostial,Dirk Muir,Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro,Rafael Portillo,John Ralyea, AlexandreBalduino Sollaci, Antonio Spilimbergo, Cindy Xu, and IMF seminar participants for useful comments and suggestions. All remaining ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution WORKING PAPERS The Global Impact of AI:Mind the Gap Prepared byEugenioCerutti, Antonio GarciaPascual, Yosuke Kido,Longji Li, Giovanni Melina, Marina M. Tavares,and Philippe Wingender Contents 1. Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................3 Exposure........................................................................................................................................................6Preparedness.................................................................................................................................................6Access............................................................................................................................................................7 3. Model, Calibration and Scenarios.................................................................................................................7 Model..............................................................................................................................................................7Calibration......................................................................................................................................................9CalibrationofProductivity Shocks.........................................................................................................11AI Access...............................................................................................................................................12AI Exposure..........................................................................................................................................12AI Preparedness...................................................................................................................................13Benchmark TFP Growth.......................................................................................................................13 Impact onProductivity..................................................................................................................................15Impact on GDP.............................................................................................................................................16Impact onInflation........................................................................................................................................17Impact on Exchange Rates and Current Accounts......................................................................................18 Limited AI Access Scenario..........................................................................................................................21Enhanced AI Preparedness Scenario..........................................................................................................21Mind the AI gap: A Complex Outlook forEMs and LICs..............................................................................23 Annex I.Aggregation of Industries in GIMF...................................................................................................25 1.Introduction Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds the promise of raising productivity, stimulating innovation, and altering thenature of work a

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