预计2026财年仍有多个增长动力

There are still multiple growth drivers in FY26E Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price 3Q25 resultswerea miss, but that was mostly due to higher delivery costs.Eventhoughthisis negative on profit in the short run, the impact could be positive inthe long run, as Luckin Coffee’s customer retention is much higher than its peers(Cotti’s SSSG in 3Q25 hasslowed down massively based on our channel check,while that for Luckin Coffee is not only fast but stable). Moreover, we dounderstand the high base could kick in since 4Q25E and into FY26E, but LuckinCoffee is equipped with many company-specific growth drivers so that its SSSG China Consumer Discretionary Walter WOO(852) 3761 8776walterwoo@cmbi.com.hk For 4Q25E, we expect sales growth to stay relatively fast and the dragfrom delivery costs to gradually improve.On one hand, even thoughtheSSSG inOct 2025wasfaster than Sep 2025, based on our channel check,weareconservative on SSSG in 4Q25E (forecasting only a HSD), becauseof the possibility ofa scale-back in delivery subsidies as well as theincreasingly high base.On the other hand, storeexpansion has started toacceleratesince 3Q25 (partnership stores are even faster),andthereforewe are still expecting anabout 40% sales growth in 4Q25E.Margin-wise, For FY26E, despite the high base,we are cautiously optimistic.Weagree that the high basein FY25E (induced by the delivery subsides) couldbe an issue for the tea drink and coffee sector in general in FY26E (for bothSSSG and valuation of variouslisted companies).However, we do thinkcompanylike Luckin Coffeeismuch more well-preparedthanthe others.For example, on SSSG, while we are conservatively forecasting a 2% inFY26E,weactuallyseequite manygrowthdrivers, namely:1) categoryexpansion (Luckin Coffee could launch more non-coffee products likesnacks, breakfast or even differenttypes of food),2) greater push on thestar products (number of new SKUs did increase to 30 in 3Q25 vs just 17 in3Q24,whiletheirpopularity is not as high as the star products in the past,wedo see room for improvement,perhaps in FY26E),3)marketingexpenses as % of sales decreasedin 3Q25,butLuckin Coffee could rampthat up if needed, and lastly, 4) further boosting the sales and purchasingfrequency of each customer (Luckin Coffee has acquired about 34.5mn new Source: FactSet Recent reports:Haidilao (6862 HK)-Downside protected and more reformsstart(28Aug25) Green Tea Group (6831 HK)-SolidSSSG and margin trend will likely sustain(27Aug25) Jiumaojiu (9922HK)-Multiple positivesigns suggest a turnaround(26Aug25) Yum China (9987 HK)-Target kept butcash return may be limited(6 Aug25) Green Tea Group (6831 HK)-1H25Eprofit comes as surprise with positive2H25E outlook Store expansionwas much faster than expected, and we expectthe paceto stayfast in 4Q25E.The Company has opened 3,008 new stores in 3Q25, representing a37% YoY growth (much faster than the 31% in 2Q25) and the total store count has nowreached 29,214as of3Q25. As a result, we would notbe surprised to see Luckin Coffee 3Q25 results have missed our and market’s expectation, but mostly due todelivery-related costs,the underlying is still very healthy and encouraging.For3Q25, Luckin Coffee sales increased by 50% YoY to RMB 15.3bn, better than CMBI/BBG est. by 6%/9%,andwe believe that is because of: 1) acceleration in SSSG (to14.4% in 3Q25, from 13.4% in 2Q25), 2)highlyrobust delivery sales growth, 3)relatively faster sales growth from partnership stores (not only due to faster storeexpansion but also bettersales per store growth) and 4) faster-than-expected storeexpansion.During the same period, net profit dropped by 2% YoY toRMB1.28bn,missing CMBI/ BBG est. by 14%/ 15%, mainly caused by: 1)asurge in deliveryexpenses (accounted for 19% of total sales vs CMBI est. of 13.5%) and 2) higher-than-expected effective tax rate (at 30.5% vs CMBI est. of 27%). As a result, the store-level Maintain BUY and raise TP toUS$54.68.The new TP is based on 25x FY26E P/E(rolledover from 25x FY25E P/E), supported by 26% sales CAGR and 27% net profitCAGR during FY24-27E. We have revised down FY25E/ 26E/ 27E net profit forecastsby 4%/ 3%/ 3%, due to faster SSSG and store expansion but much higher-than-expected delivery costs and tax rate.As we are still fairly positive about Luckin Coffee’s Earnings revision FocusCharts Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source:Company data,CMBIGMestimates Source:Company data,CMBIGMestimates Source:Company data,CMBIGM Source:Company data,CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Source:Company data, CMBIGM Resultsreview Assumptions Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primaryresponsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about thesubject