早上洞察：2025年11月13日

Morning Insight:November 13, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Crude Oil:Volatility may continue to widen after the sharp drop,gradually testing previous lows. Last night, both domestic and international oil prices plunged sharply,in line with our previous expectations. We believe that attention shouldremain on downside risk for oil prices in the near term, with domesticand international markets potentially testing April’s previous lows, andpossibly even breaking below them to test the $50/barrel level. The core logic includes: 1.) Although Russian oil sanctions in Octobertemporarily drove a short-term surge, Chinese local refineries are likelyto be the ultimate buyers. With Chinese refiners beginning to draw downraw material inventories, the impact ofgeopolitical positives remainsuncertain. Recent trends suggest Russian oil supply is unlikely to beinterrupted. 2.)The Venezuela-related geopolitical issue, which themarket has been closely watching, may contain a high emotional premiumthat could dissipate at any time. 3.)The China-US APEC meeting has notprovided any clear positive signals. 4.)OPEC+ production increasescontinue, coupled with seasonal inventory builds; global stockaccumulation in Q4 is difficult to refute. From a strategy perspective, short positions can be maintained, whilemonitoring the widening of inter-regional price spreads amid risingshipping costs, which could repeatedly generate cross-region arbitrageopportunities (see our 2025 annual report“Crude Oil: Swing Shorts andArbitrage Opportunities,”published December 2024). Electrolytic Aluminum:Weekly price levels continue to trend upward.Recently, aluminum products have clearly attracted more market attention(with some capital spillover from stock-futures linkage). The positiveimpact of AI and power-related applications on the electrolytic aluminumsupply-demand balance is gradually forming an imaginative narrative.Based on the medium-term supply-demand outlook, the acceleration of newoverseas supply—especially from Indonesia—remains uncertain. Currently,production capacity with guaranteed power supply is still relativelycontrollable. On the demand side, thanks to the increasingly diversifiedconsumption structure and resilient downstream processing demand, demandgrowth remains foreseeable. Therefore, in an overall market that is stillin a tight balance, combined with the catalytic effect of emergingconsumptiongrowth (“many small contributions accumulate”in sectorssuch as computing centers, liquid cooling technology, transformers,energy storage, robotics, and defense), the aluminum supply-demandfundamentals continue to support upward pressure on aluminum prices.From a valuation perspective, traditional base metals, led by copper, arestill considered for long-term overweight allocations, and aluminum’srelatively lagging valuation provides additional support for positiveprice movement. In the short-term micro supply-demand context, year-end inventory drawswill mainly depend on the year-on-year decline in photovoltaic productionand the reduction of aluminum ingot imports under toll processing. Pricesare expected to fall to slightly above last year’s year-end level, thoughthe absolute level should remain relatively low. As long as the macroenvironment does not weaken unexpectedly and downstream feedback remainsresilient, aluminum prices are expected to maintain upside potential forthe remainder of the year. Silver:Prices are rising rapidly, with domestic prices hitting new highsand leading overseas gains. We believe that silver price increases areinevitable given that the global silver inventory imbalance has not been fundamentally resolved. Although previous exports of goods from China andthe U.S. to London eased tight spot conditions, the U.S. has low exportwillingness and China’s export potential is limited (see“Silver NewEra: Challenges and Opportunities—Analysis of Silver Price Spreads andMarket Outlook,”2025.10.14), so London inventories are unlikely toreturn to previous highs. Latest calculations show London’s available liquid inventory is only3,443 tons, an increase of roughly 1,500 tons from the previous low of1,847 tons. At the same time, exports have left Chinese inventories athistorical lows, with total inventories at the two exchanges only 1,445tons.The inventory-to-position ratio (including SHFE Silver and TD) isonly 9.8%, making domestic silver spot especially tight, and TD istrading at a premium—short squeezes cannot be ruled out. Beyond spot imbalances, macro factors also point to upward silver prices:1.)The U.S. government reopening restores liquidity. 2.) Marketexpectations around Federal Reserve personnel changes, with the AtlantaFed President—who advocated“no rate cut in December”—retiring inFebruary next year. Around November 27 (Thanksgiving), Treasury SecretaryJanet Yellen will submit her recomm