早上洞察：2025年7月11日

Morning Insight:July 11, 2025 LinlinGaoCertification：Z0002332gaolinlin@gtht.comYu Chen Wu (Contact)Certification：F03133175 wuyuchen@gtht.com Main Body Commodity MarketInsight： Silicon Manganese & Ferrosilicon:Macro sentiment combined with costsupport has driven a steady upward trend in both silicon-based alloys.Recently, the ferroalloy market has experienced a gradual climb,supported by an improved macro environment and a synchronized rally inthe ferrous sector, along with anticipated cost support. Since mid-June,ferrosilicon futures have risen by 7.8%, while silicomanganese has gained6.1%. On the sentiment front, the broad-based gains in the ferrous sector—ledby a rebound in coking coal—have lifted silicon-related products, furtherboosted by the ripple effects of recent“anti-involution”policysignals. On the cost side, ferrosilicon is supported by expectations ofhigher electricity tariffs in Ningxia during the non-trading months(August–September), while silicomanganese benefits from firm manganeseore offers from South Africa, tight availability of oxide ore, and strongprice-holding sentiment in the manganese ore market. These factors createa robust cost floor for the forward market. Currently, the market is characterized by“emotion-driven rallies withunderlying demand support.”Rising prices in steel procurement contractsconfirm ongoing demand. However, with prices approaching producer hedgingzones, caution is warranted to avoid excessive chasing. Attention shouldfocus on the sustainability of high steel output and elevated millprofits, alongside close monitoring of raw material shipments and hot metal production. Watch for easing sentiment in coke and coal markets andconcrete signs of steel production cuts. A cautious stance is advised. Glass:Short-term outlook remains slightly bullish, while the medium-termis expected to see range-bound trading. Recently, under the influence ofpolicy-related sentiment, heavily loss-making commodities have generallyexperienced significant rebounds. Althoughcurrent policies have notdirectly impacted the supply side of the glass industry, short sellershave actively exited the market, driving futures prices higher.On the spot market side, transaction activity has clearly improved,particularly in previously weak regions such as Hubei. In the short term,sentiment-driven speculation may continue to support the market. However,it's important to note that the futuresmarket has significantly outpacedspot prices, with the September contract rebounding for several sessionswhile spot prices lag behind, leading to a widening basis.Going forward, the market is likely to shift into a mildly bullish,oscillating pattern, taking“three steps back”after the“one stepforward.”Upside is capped by persistent basis weakening and high spotinventories, while downside is supported by deep industry-wide losses.Overall, the medium-term is expected to remain range-bound. Sugar:Entering a consolidation phase. The sugar market is currentlycharacterized by strong fundamentals but weak expectations, with apattern of domestic strength and external weakness. In terms of trend,the global sugar market is transitioning from a supply shortage in the2024/25 crushing season to a significant surplus expected in 2025/26, andthis bearish outlook is weighing on New York raw sugar prices.Since early 2025, China has strengthened controls on syrup and premixpowder imports, while conventional imports have also declined. Industrialinventories at domestic sugar mills remain low, anchoring domesticpricing to the cost of out-of-quota imports.As a result, the marketshows a wide basis and a large domestic-overseas price spread. In terms of timing, New York raw sugar finds solid support around 14.5–15.5 cents/lb, which aligns with Brazil's sugar-ethanol parity andproduction costs—representing the lowest-cost segment of global supply.This suggests the downtrend has paused and the market has entered aconsolidation phase. Zhengzhou sugar futures are largely following thismovement. A temporary opportunity may arise from basis correction,particularly in the form of the SEP-JAN calendar spread. Government Bonds:The bond market has pulled back amid policy-drivenexpectations, with the property sector and ferrous commodities rallying.Before the 2023 export-driven logic that supported ferrous markets re-emerges and in the absence of clear structural changes indicating aneconomic reacceleration, the property-related sectors remain closelycorrelated with the broader macro environment. At the same time,government bond futures prices continue to show a negative correlationwith rebar prices. As previously mentioned, the new round of supply-side reform and the pushagainst "internal competition" will need to be backed by demand-expansionpolicies. We also reiterate that June may mark the low point forinflation and the GDP deflator this year, with the pace of subsequentrecovery dependent on the intensity of policy support. Under thepreva